根据真实事件改编
不懂的事情 你自然会多加小心
惹祸上身的是你自以为懂的事
马克吐温
弗兰克 老婆孩子还好吧 Hi ya Frank, how are the wife and kids?
你考虑过买国库券或事业公司股票吗 抽烟吗 you know, shouldn't y'all be considering treasury bonds or utility stocks? Smoke?
在70年代后期 in the late seventies
银行业并不是赚大钱的行业 banking wasn't a job you went into to make large sums of money.
绝对废柴行业 It was a fucking snooze!
到处是穷鬼 Filled with losers!
都是来卖保险 做帐的 Like selling insurance, or.... accounting
如果银行业废柴的话 And if banking was boring...
证券部门就是植物人呆的地方 then the bond department at the bank was straight up comatose.
大伙都知道证券是怎么回事 We all know about bonds....
把证券当礼物送给你的15岁小屁孩 You give em to your snot nosed kid when he turns fifteen
到他30了 能拿到一百来块钱 Maybe when he's thirty he makes a hundred bucks.
累不累啊 Boring!
千呼万唤 所罗门兄弟公司的刘易斯驾临 That is until Lewis Rainieri came on the scene at Salomon Brothers
这名不经传的人物 对你的影响… You might not know who he is
比起乔丹 iPod 视频网站加起来还要大 But he changed your life more than Michael Jordan, the I-Pod and Youtube put together!
先生们 咱们一起发财吧 怎么样 Hey Gentlemen, let's get some money in here. Let's make some money! What do you say?!
可能当时刘易斯还不知道 但其实他已经改变了历史 You see, Lewis didn't know it yet, but he already changed banking forever
就用最简单的这个点子 with one simple idea.
房贷证券 The mortgage backed security.
或者私营房贷证券 or... Private Label MBS
你们都背着普通的房贷 You got your average persons mortgage
固定利率 30年还清 没意思 定额小笔钱偿还 就这样了 fixed rate, thirty years, boring! Same, small payoff. Right!
但是… But......
如果你把上千个房贷打包起来 when you add thousands of them all bundled together
忽然回报率上升了 但风险还很小 suddenly, the yield goes up, but the risk is still small, because....
因为它们是房贷 哪个神经病不还房贷呢 Well, they're mortgages, and who the hell doesn't pay their mortgage?
这种证券评级怎么样 What exactly is the credit-rating on this bond?
证券评级…是AAA级别 This bond gentlemen... Is AAA-Rating!
这就是我们密西根州养老基金一直找的啊 This is exactly what the Michigan State Pension fund has been looking for!
- 我买两千万 - 别扫兴啊 放开点 I'll buy twenty million! -Oh come on, live a little!
两千五百万 Twenty five million!
钱就像下雨一样来了 The money came raining down!
银行家破例从乡村俱乐部跑到了脱衣舞夜总会 And for the first time, the banker went from the country-club to the strip-club.
很快 股票和存款都没人考虑了 Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential.
每年大伙都买卖5百亿 1千亿 2千亿的房贷证券 They were doing fifty, a hundred, two hundred billion in mortgage bonds
还有几十种其他证券 and dozens of other securities a year.
1970年代末 Christie Brinkley模特演员 因泳装封面照出名
1980年9月22日 里根总统对古巴裔美国人演讲
1980年6月20日 《福禄双霸天》喜剧电影
1984年1月24日 第一代苹果电脑
1986年8月20日 吉姆·贝克“传承会”教会演讲 后因其性丑闻组织破裂
1980年代 世贸大厦建筑群建成
1982 巴斯奎特作品《Self Potrait As A Heel》, 1988年去世
美国人都没注意到金融行业已经成为领头羊
1986 电影《壮志凌云》
1981-1989 老布什担任总统
1980 毒品 80年代军方加入禁毒力量
1989年8月19日 柏林墙倒塌
1990 说唱歌手LL Cool J歌曲《Mama Said Knock You Out》
1998年 克林顿 莱温斯基绯闻
1998年8月15日 iMac G3 第一台苹果一体机 精简型电脑的鼻祖
2001 小布什总统上台
然后三十年后 08年的一天
1995年4月19日 俄克拉何马城爆炸案
1990年代 歌手Snoop Doggy Dogg和Tupac
1997 《南方公园》首播
1998 谷歌公司成立
1994 辣妹合唱团
2000 美国LGBT同志权利运动
2002 科恩《AliG个人秀》上映 也是《波拉特》主演
一切轰然倒塌 It all came crashing down!
贝尔斯登公司陷入泥潭 美联储帮忙救急 Bear Stearns was in a death spiral and the FED brokered it's sale.
现代历史上最严重的经济危机 The worst financial crisis in modern times
几十年以来最大的金融海啸 The largest financial disaster in decades
很可能是整个时代最糟的情况了 And perhaps the end of the era
5百万人丢了工作 5 million unemployed
到最后 刘易斯的房贷证券 异变成了摧毁全球经济的怪物 In the end Lewis Rainier's mortgage backed security mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world economy
专家 领导人或者电视上的权威都没能预料到 And none of the experts, or leaders, or talking heads had a clue it was coming.
驱逐通知
我估计你们也没弄明白发生了什么事情 and I'm guessing most of you still don't really know what happened.
是啊 大家也就是人云亦云一下… Yeah, you got a sound bite you repeat so you don't sound dumb, but come on....
我们的金融机构是强有力的 Our financial institutions are strong!
美国财政部长
不过确实有人预料到这事儿发生 But there were some who saw it coming.
整个世界都在虚假狂欢 少数的局外人和怪才却独具慧眼 While the whole world was having a big old party, few outsiders and weirdos saw what no-one else could.
不是我 我才不怪呢 等会再跟你说我的酷事儿 Not me, I'm not a weirdo, I'm pretty fucking cool, but... we'll meet again later!
这些人发现了经济中心的弥天大谎 These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy
方法不难 只是随大流的人永远不会去做： and they saw it by doing something the rest of the suckers never thought to do.
亲自去了解 They looked
《大空头》 译者:aceusub 译者邮箱: aceusub@126.com 时间轴校准/微博@Emtee
贯穿整个20世纪30年代… Through the nineteen thirties....
房产市场…全国性的崩溃 The housing market collapsed... nationwide.
大概80%都完了 By roughly 80 percent.
其中有一半的房贷都违约了 And half of all .. eh ... mortgage debt was in default.
那时候有… There were.. Very......
明确的鉴别指标 相当好认 Specific identifiers. Extremely recognizable.
麦克·贝利 赛恩对冲基金经理
稍等 比方说 wait... for instance
狂热的标志之一 W-w-w-w one of the hallmarks of mania.
是快速上升的复杂性和欺诈性的利率 is that rapid rise and complexity, and the rates... they frauded
居然在上升 Did you know.... They're going up!
我这人习惯自己呆着 I've always been.. more comfortable.. when alone.
可能是我玻璃假眼的原因吧 I believe... maybe... it's because of... my glass eye.
小时候得过病 眼睛坏了一边 i lost the eye... in a childhood illness.
我就不再合群了 separates me from people.
…利率居然在上升 Did you know... They're going up!
…欺诈性的利率达到了30年代最高点 Highest fraud rates since the nineteen thirties.
我还真不了解 -No, I didn't know that.
我…是说1933年 I mean.. ghe ghe ghe... nine ... nineteen thirty three
大萧条的第四年 the fourth year of the great depression
儿子你表现的一直很好 教练都表扬你了 -You were playing so great son, even heard the coach say it!
我想回家 Can we just go home?
所有社交活动 都会让我和对方不舒服 All social interf.. actions are awkward for me and for the.... person
哪怕我想夸夸别人 也词不达意 Even when i try to compliment... it somehow... it comes out wrong....
你头型不错啊 你自己理的吗 You have a very nice haircut, you do it yourself?
哦…你说啥 -huh, What?
不是我…嗯… -No, i eh....
抱歉 别往心里去 I'm sorry... please...
我老是这样 我老婆让我多和别人交流 I'm going on and on. My wife told me i need to share more.
听起来挺好的建议 -That seems healthy.
那我就在这儿干了 我觉得我能帮你筹款 So .. I get the job? I really think i could help you fund.
好啊 那太好了 Yeah.... Yeah... sure!
- 你叫 … - 大卫 太棒了 - You're -David!... David.... Great!
那我去找个位子 有什么我能上手帮到你的工作吗 I guess I'll go find a desk. Is there anything you want me to work on for start?
…有 ehh..... Yeah.
你回头找我也行 -You could let me know later!
赛恩资本
你…你…觉得 D... d... d... did ya... did you
你觉得当时奇怪吗… Think it was strange when...
那时… Ehm...
2001年互联网泡沫破裂的时候… the tech-bubble burst in 2001
硅谷的房价… And the housing market in San- Jose.
世界科技中心的房价… Tech-Capital of the world....
却逆势上涨… Went up.....
有点…不 不奇怪 it's strange... -No, no!
这是房产…房产一直很稳定 风险也低 it's housing... housing is always stable... low-risk.
我说的就是这点很奇怪 That's the idea ... yeah.
我要你帮我找到… I want you to get me....
卖的最火的20个房贷证券 The ... eh....Top-20 selling mortgage bonds
你想要知道最火的20家是哪些 -So, you want to know what the top-20 selling mortgage bonds are?
不不不 我要知道每一家的所有房贷数据 No, no, no, i want to know what mortgages are in each one
2005年3月
稍等稍等…这些房贷不是… -Wha.. wait... -Aren't those mortgages made up of
这些房贷证券不是成千上万个房贷组成的吗 -Wait... aren't those bonds made up of thousands and thousands of mortgages?
是啊 Yeah...
我这就去办 贝利博士 Right away, Dr. Burry.
证券交易委员会房贷证券商
盈利38% 赛恩净值
证券交易委员会 房贷证券商违规
没有找到任何匹配网页
bgm:《Blood and Thunder》by Mastodon
我人不错 整天乐呵呵的 a nice guy... all day long.
你去问别人 大伙都愿意和我相处 hmm.. ask anyone...hmm, I'm a pleasure to work with.
可是我儿子只要办砸了事儿 But the second my son screws up
我… and...
我就对他吼 就像我爸对我一样… yelling at him... just like my dad did to me.
感觉自己控制不住自己的嘴… You hear the words that are coming out of my mouth.
抱歉我迟到了 没出租车 Sorry I'm late, no cabs!
啊 Aaaahh
你们评评理 So get this....
昨天我和私人银行的一个人聊 I met with this retail banker yesterday..
本来是让他投资我的基金 I'm supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,
结果我开始和他较真有关透支的问题 instead, i start drilling him about overdraft analysis
他的银行让客户写了十几个支票 and how his bank will let customers write ten... twelve cheques
还不告诉客户已经透支了 Before telling them they're overdrawing.
这个小人… and this creep....
用这种卑鄙的方式赚了十亿多 is making billions off screwing over people this way.
我越来越压不住火 我问他 And I'm getting madder and madder, and i ask him.
瞪着他 质问他 I look him in the face and i say:
你晚上睡得着觉吗 不怕鬼叫门吗 How can you sleep at night, knowing... that you're ripping off working people.
你猜怎么着…他扭头走了 And know what he did.... He left!
也不理我 直接走人 He just walks out of the lunch, doesn't say a word.
这他妈是什么玩意 好像我惹着他了 What the fuck is that? Who's fucked up in that scenario?
错在我 还是这个傻逼 Am i? Or is this douche-bag?
把我晾在那儿 谁更操蛋 who leaves me hanging... Is he the fucked up one?
- 还给我脸色看 - 咱们以前说过几次了 Trying to make me feel bad about myself! -We have talk about this numerous times
- 让他去死吧 - 你不能迟到了就抢别人的话 Fuck him! -You can't come in late and hijack the entire session!
你说什么啊 我没抢啊 What do you mean, i didn't hijack the meeting.
- 我抢话了吗 - 抢了 Did i hijack this session? -Yeah
（这是团体心理治疗）
你干啥的 What do you do?
我做商品期货的 I'm in commodities.
我等着看你的好戏 Good luck with that!
马克… Marc...
我知道你刚失去了亲人 I know you've suffered a terrible loss,
你想要聊聊吗 Do you want to talk about that?
这事儿我不会开口 I don't talk about that.
稍等… Hold on...
稍等…靠 我得接电话了 抱歉 Hold on.. Shit.. let's take this, sorry!
对不起了 Sorry!
伯特 你怎么做我不管 I don't care Porter...
这家伙赚的钱是刮人骨头来的 能撑多久 This guy's whole business is build upon ripping people off,how long can that last?
马克·鲍姆
大伙再见 Bye everybody!
85… 85...
这个逾期30天 这个60天没交了 That's 30 days late, that's 60 days late.
期末余额 | 初始余额 | 损失
按时还贷 Pay on time.
这些FICO信用评分… These Fico-scores
盈利38.0% 赛恩净值
你们这下现原形了… They're caught up with their pants....
30天逾期 30 days late...
贷款价值比…大概是5 Loan to Value.... maybe 5
可能是9 maybe 9
60天逾期 天哪 60 days late, jeez!
闻所未闻 I've never heard of that.
30天逾期 30 days late
他一天都没动窝了 He hasn't move all day.
他每隔几天都这样一次 He does this every few days.
他雇了我以后就没再理过我 Hasn't spoken to me since he hired me.
房贷公司本息已垫付 （这是放贷者有信心收回房贷时的做法）
麦克 你还好吗 Michael, how are you guy?!
劳伦斯 我找到了有意思的东西 Lawrence, I've put out something really interesting...
麦克你干的好 你每次找到有意思的东西 我们就能躺着赚钱了 Great Michael, whenever you find something interesting, we all sit to make money.
看上哪个股票了 What stock are you vowing?
不不不…不是股票 我要做空房地产市场 No, no , no no.. I wanna, i wanna short the housing market.
是吗 房地产市场可是坚如磐石 Really? But the housing market is rock-solid!
格林斯潘说过 泡沫是局部现象 断供的很少 Greenspan just said: "Bubbles are regional, defaults are rare!"
告诉他们我一会就到 Tell em I'll be there in a minute
你再说一遍 Say again!
听好了 格林斯潘说错了 Look... Greenspan's wrong!
我知道你不是故意的 Look, i don't think you mean to do this, but eh..
可你有时候说话太瞧不起人 sometimes you sound very dismissive and superior.
事情本来就是这样 格林斯潘错了 你让我怎么说… It's a fact, Greenspan's wrong. I don't know how if you want your thr....
麦克… Look, Michael...
四年前你还是个博士 只有个破网站和一点继承来的钱 Metro Capital backed you four years ago when you were a Doctor with a
我们全球国际资本就力挺你了 dinky web page and some inheritance money,
一直以来业绩也不错…你继续做股票… We've all done very well, look... Why don't you just stick with stocks....
你了解我这个人…我…我 You know me.... I, I, I, I,
我的风格就是找能赚钱的地方 I look for value, wherever it can be found.
情况就是 The fact is
这些房贷证券… That these mortgage backed securities
里面有相当高风险的可调利率房贷 Are filled with extremely risky sub-prime adjustable rates.
等这部分到07年左右开始发作 and when the majority of these adjustable rates kick in.... in '07
市场就会衰退 They will begin to fail
如果最终能占到15%以上 整个房贷证券市场就毫无价值 and if they fail above 15 percent the whole bond is worthless.
麦克 停下来再想想 回头我再找你聊 -Michael, just take a beat, we'll talk about this later!
劳伦斯 别给我来这套…如果… Lawrence please, don't patronize me, if ... it .. is...
房贷证券 次级贷 份额… -Mortgage backed securities, sub-prime loans, tranches....
名词让人头疼是吧 Is pretty confusing right?
是不是让你觉得智商特别低 Doesn't it make you feel bored.... or stupid....
这就是它的本意 Well... it's supposed to.
华尔街特别爱用玄乎的词儿 让你觉得只有他们才能做的来 Wall-street loves to use confusing terms, to make you think only they can do what they do.
或者你撒手不管 Or even better.....
他们就更高兴了 for you just to leave them the fuck alone.
我们让演员玛格在泡泡浴里解释给你听 So... here's Margot Robbie in a bubble-bath to explain.
大概意思就是 刘易斯的房贷证券 让大银行疯狂赚钱 Basically, Lewis Rainieri's mortgage bonds were amazingly profitable for the big banks.
他们从2%的买卖提成中赚了几十亿 They made billions and billions off of their 2% fee they got for selling each of these bonds
但慢慢房贷不够用来组成证券了 But then they start ranning out of mortgages to put in them.
毕竟房子和能买房的人都是有数儿的 对吧 After all, there are only so many homes and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them... right?
银行就开始把风险越来越高的房贷做成证券 So the banks started filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages
谢了 亨利 Thank you Hendry
这样的话 机器就能一直转着了 That way, they can keep that profit machine churning right?
对了 这些高风险的房贷 就叫：次级贷 By the way, these risky mortgages are called: Sub-Prime.
下回 听到次级贷这个词 你就想：狗屎贷 So... whenever you hear sub-prime... think: Shit
麦克老兄发现… Our friend Michael Burry found out,
这些房贷证券 that these mortgages bonds
本来应该至少有65%的3A评级 但其实里面就是一坨屎 that were supposedly 65 percent AAA, were actually just, basically full of shit.
所以他要做空房贷证券 So now he's going to short the bonds
也就是…赌房产市场跌 which means.... Bet against.
懂了吧 太好了 Got it?.... Good!
别看姐洗澡了 Now fuck off!
很快人们就会发现这个机会的 咱们得快点干 It's only a matter of time before someone else sees this investment, we have to act now.
你怎么就知道这些证券不值钱 How do you know the bonds are worthless?
这里面不是他妈的有上千页房贷吗 Aren't they filled with fucking thousands of pages of mortgages?
我都看了 I read them!
- 你都看了 - 我都看了 -You read them? I read.... Yeah!
没人这么脑子进水 打包房贷的证券律师才不得不看 No-one reads them, only the lawyers who put them together read them!
我觉得他们也不懂纸里包的是什么 I don't think they even know what they've made
有这些垃圾贷款 房地产注定火不起来 The housing market is propped up on these bad loans.
定时炸弹在 我要做空房产市场 It's a time-bomb and i want to short it.
凭借什么做空 Through what instrument Michael?
现在还没有做房贷证券的保险或期权 There are no insurance-contracts or options for mortgage bonds.
这证券太稳定没人做 The bonds are too stable!
劳伦斯… Lawrence....
我打算这么干… This is what I'm gonna do....
我要让银行 专门为我做一个金融工具 I am gonna get a bank to make me one.
然后… Then.....
我再买下来 I'm gonna buy it.
我不做这种买卖 I don't want that kind of business!
这钱不干净 是黑心钱 Money is not money! That's bad money!
嘿 看着点 Hey... Excuse me!
我问你 什么公司这么玩弄客户 还能做大 Let me ask you this: What company treats its customers that shittily and succeeds?
好吧…高盛银行… Fine... OK... Goldman....
马克·鲍姆的事业基于在未查实的情况下 Mark Baum had built his career on never assuming anyone
从不认为任何人或公司是正规的 or any company was legit without proving it.
他小的时候在犹太学院学法典时 When he was a kid he excelled at studying the Talmud and Yeshiva.
废话少说 有天他老师对他妈说 Whatever! But, one day his Rabbi told his mom why.
保罗不错 马克学习法典也成绩优异 Paul is a fine boy and Mark is an excellent student of the Torah and Talmud
那还有什么问题 老师 Then what's the problem Rabbi?
是因为马克努力学习的理由 It's the reason Mark is studying so hard.
他是想要找到上帝福音中的矛盾之处 He's looking for inconsistencies in the word of God!
那他找到了吗 So has he found any?
以后 马克就在华尔街成立了自己的基金 Later Baum started his own fund on Wall-street.
他对屁话可是有狗一样嗅觉 He had an amazing nose for bullshit.
哪里有蠢蛋在胡说 他都会给大伙指出来 He wasn't afraid to let anyone know, when and where the bull had gone number 2.
后来马克经历了不幸 整个世界观都阴暗了 Then a tragedy happened to Mark and it turned his whole world really dark
开始觉得整个金融系统都是骗局 and ready to believe the whole system was a lie.
稍等 Hold on!
辛西娅找我 我20分钟到办公室 It's Cynthia, I'll be in the office in twenty minutes.
亲爱的 Hi Honey!
咨询师打电话给我 你怎么又这样了 The therapist called.... You did it again!
没出租车有什么办法 There were no cabs... What was i supposed to do?
我很担心你的状态 I worry about you Mark!
我至少去报到了 At least i went
你这样 像是想把全世界都理顺了 You're running around like you have to right every wrong in the world.
- 好吧… - 一直气鼓鼓的 -Ok... -How angry
你说的对 我就是心眼小 现在还生气了 Fine! You know what... I'm a mean guy and I'm pissed off!
可我这个圈子 留下烂摊子 擦屁股走人的太多 But... It is a shitstorm out here sweetie. You have no idea the kind of crap people are pulling.
大伙还脸上自带拍恩雅MTV的表情 and everybody is walking around like they're in a goddamn Enya-video.
以后他们全被玩完 They're all getting screwed you know!
他们关心什么 关心球赛 You know what they care about? They care about the ballgame!
关心哪个女演员去戒毒了 Or they care about what actresses went into rehab!
你得让医生给你开点药了 I, I think you should try medication!
不行 咱俩商量过 影响工作的药不能吃 No, no, we agreed, if it interfered with work.
你这么恨华尔街 消消气就别干了 you hate Wall-street, but maybe it's time to quit?
- 我爱这一行 - 你恨这一行 I love my job! -You hate your job!
- 我爱这一行 - 你都这么郁闷了 I love my job! -You're miserable!
我爱我的工作 真的 I love my job, I love my job honey!
马克 Mark!
想起发生的事情 我每天也心里不舒服 I am sad every day about what happened.
你肯定也不好受 可你从来不表现出来 I know you must feel the same, but you never show it!
我知道你们兄弟俩关系很好 I knew how close you were to your brother.
卡布 CAB!
你去哪儿了 Where'd ya go pal?
卡布 CAB!!
每天我都觉得你想开口聊聊 可你总是忍着 Everyday i think you're gonna talk about it, and you never do!
你能试着做一点改变吗 Will you ever think about the idea of making a change?
好吧 亲爱的 我会认真考虑的… Fine, fine, honey, you know what, i will consider it, but honestly....
不过我真的没事儿 放心 Cynthia I'm OK, I really am!
嘿 这是我抢来的出租 Hey, Hey! No, no, my cab!
我的出租 我的 That's my cab, that's my cab, That is my cab!
- 蠢货 - 滚蛋 - 你滚蛋 -Schmuck! -Fuck you! -Fuck you!
我等会再打给你 I'll call you later.
我要买…房贷证券的互换 I wanna buy.... swaps on mortgage bonds
这种信用违约互换 来担保 Credit default swap, that will pay off...
房贷证券不能兑换的情况 If the underlying.... bond fails.
高盛公司
- 你想要赌房价跌 - 是的 -You want to bet against the housing market? - Yes
为什么 Why?
除非有上百万的美国人房贷断供才有可能 Those bonds only fail if millions of Americans don't pay their mortgages.
历史上从来没有过这种事 That's never happened in history.
恕我直言 贝利博士 我觉得您投资不太明智 If you'll excuse me Dr. Burry, that seems like a foolish investment.
按照市场和银行的主流预期和大众看法 Based on... prevailing sentiment of the market and banks, and popular culture...
我这么做是不明智 Yes, it's a foolish investment. But eh...
但是所有人都错了… Everyone's wrong...
呵-呵- That's a good one.
贝利博士 华尔街是赚钱的地方 有免费的钱我们自然来者不拒 This is Wall-street Dr. Burry, if you offer us free money, we're going to take it
我唯一的顾虑是…万一房贷市场垮了… My one concern is, is that.. eh.. when the bonds fail..
我要确保你们赔付… Eh... i want to be certain,
你们万一偿还能力不够 我的钱怎么办 of payment, in case of solvency issues with the bank.
您不是在说笑吧 -I'm sorry, are you for real?
你想要赌房地产崩溃 还担心我们不能赔付你 You want to bet against the housing market, and you're worried we won't pay you?
是的 就是这意思 yes.. that's correct.
我觉得我们能做成这笔买卖 Listen.. I think we will make this work
房贷证券不可能出事的 mortgage bond is never gonna crash
现在市场还非常稳固 bacause it's so solid right now
那我们继续和他谈 getting on and deal with it
嗯 Mmhhhh.
贝利博士 我们会制定一个现收现付的赔付办法 Dr Burry, we could work out a pay-as-we-go structure that would payout if the bonds fail.
这也意味着 如果证券势头上涨 It would also apply to your payments if the value of the mortgage-fund goes up
你要每个月付给我们保险费用 You'd have to pay us monthly premiums.
您能同意这样的条款吗 贝利博士 Is that acceptable Dr. Burry?
很好…没问题 Yes.. it is, Yes.
我这里有招股说明书 Em.. I have prospectuses on,
想给你看6个房贷证券 six mortgage-backed securities i want to show you
这些多数是审批过的房贷 The majority of them are accepted mortgages.
贝利博士 这些应该没问题 Dr Burry, these should be fine!
我们能卖给你5百万的房贷证券的信用违约互换 We're prepared to sell you 5 million in credit default swaps on these mortgage bonds.
能不能卖给我一亿 Can we make it a hundred million?
那也没问题 我们能准备好一亿 Absolutely! We can make it one-hundred million.
我们会联系你 把文书发给你 We'll be in touch, send some paperwork over.
- 我挺喜欢这杯子的 想给我儿子带一个 - 拿走吧 好的 I like these cups, could i take one for my son? -Have one, Yes, Yes!
谢谢 Thank you!
拿走两个也行 Have two!
bgm:《Money Maker》by Ludacris
“互换”像两人对赌 如果房市上涨 那么麦克要按月交保险费 因为银行承担风险
如果房市崩溃 房贷证券无法交易 银行赔钱给麦克
与保险不同 互换不用真正去买被保的东西
德意志银行
有可能卖给我2亿吗 Is there any way to do two-hundred million?
我们是可以…但你得想清楚了 We can... But are you sure?
当然…我们当然可以 Absolutely... Absolutely, we can!
国家银行和贷款公司 美国最大的次级房贷公司 08年被收购
美国银行
我们有各种服务 比如园艺等… -We do, eh... different projects we do gardening, we do
有关证券 我想… the bonds.... I'd like to .. eh...
贝尔斯登公司
别人说你走极端也没什么不好的 这样活着才酷 - It's not bad for yourself to be found extreme.It's very cool!
2011年布莱尼在伦敦讨论自己首部电影
好比我本来想买24盎司的T骨牛排 I ordered the 24-ounce T-bone
2007年 吉姆·克拉默谈次级贷
结果却拿到了8盎司的碎肉 which was choice rather than the 8-ounce filet I went for volume
我想买顶级的 却买了次级的… rather than prime I went for subprime.. and just..
瑞士瑞信银行
我们想你
兰德 三个月后才发奖金 你现在就这么逍遥 Hey Randall, what with the Dom? Bonuses aren't for three months.
我们刚卖了2亿的房贷证券的信用违约互换 We just sold 200 million in credit-swaps for mortgage-bonds
加利福尼亚冒出来的疯子基金经理 Some fund-manager from California, fucking crazy right?!
老伙计 咱们就得赚傻子的钱 Only way to make money dog!
有这种违约互换 -I didn't know there were swaps on mortgages
现在就有了 陪他玩儿么 There are now, we made it for him!
他脑袋估计塞屁股里去了吧 His head must have caught up with his hole or do something... I don't know.
- 来一杯吗 - 稍等 Want one? No?
杰瑞德 Jared
你听说了兰德和一个基金经理做的买卖吗 Did you hear about the deal that Randall did with some fund-manager?
兰德 扯蛋吧 Randall? Bullshit!
他没脑子 肯定不是赚钱买卖 He's a foot-soldier, I'm sure it's a shit deal.
是真的 No, It's for real!
杰瑞德·威内特
跟你说过咱们会再见面的 I told you we'd meet later.
不巧是这种鬼地方 我平常不会来的 Unfortunately... It's in a place like this, which i would never be in.
我不和这些傻子下班后散心 我的朋友比他们有品味 I never hung out with these idiots after work, Ever! I had fashion friends.
看起来 确实有人要买2亿的信用违约互换 Apparently this guy wanted two-hundred mill in credit default swaps.
兰德也做成了买卖 你敢信 Randall made the sale, can you believe it?
有人敢做空2亿的房贷证券 Somebody shorted two-hundred mill in mortgage bonds?
这还只是在德意志银行… That was just with Deutsche...
听传闻说 他扫遍了半个城市的银行 Word is... he had half the town.
总共多少 How much in total?
一共13亿 1.3 billion
说什么 -What?
赛恩的流动资金也就这么多啊 That's... that's pretty much all of Scion's liquidity!
麦克 你这太过分了吧 Michael, that's highly distressing!
劳伦斯…我们流动资金没用完 Lawrence.... That is not all of our liquidity!
我觉得 你没弄明白这买卖是怎么回事 And I'm not certain that you really understand this trade.
这是必赚的钱 This is a certainty.
麦克 我和你平常是师生关系都好说 Mike, i consider myself a mentor to you.
但是这笔投资对公司绝对不合适 But our company is not comfortable with this investment.
- 我说话你听明白了吗 - 劳伦斯 Am i being clear? - Lawrence
对于投资策略 我拥有完全自主权 I have full autonomy when it comes to investment strategy
你去看合同 You can read our agreement.
别给我扯官腔 麦克 Do not throw our acception- agreement in my face Michael!
那是咱俩有内部共识的基础上 现在你就像个疯子一样 We had an underlying understanding, you wouldn't act like a goddamn crazy man!
这不是疯狂 This is not crazy....
这完全是逻辑推理 it's all very logical.
那现在我们就每月付费 坐等着房地产崩溃 So now we pay up premiums on these swaps against housing-market until the mortgages fail?
也就是说… In other words...
马上就损失了几百万 除非天真塌下来 we lose millions until something that has never happened before... Happens?
“我是我命运的主宰 灵魂的统帅” -英国诗人 威廉·亨利《永不屈服》
说的没错 That's correct!
股市逻辑；房地产评估 全球市场上的知识产权
亚当·斯密
我要赚钱 不是交钱 我要撤资了
信用违约互换 你疯了吗 信用违约互换
房价大涨 退钱
给信用违约互换交保费
有病吧 为什么我要交保费
你得小心 你想清楚了没有
- 你好 马克 - 你好 凯茜 -Hello Mark Baum Oh hey Kathy!
- 别怪我 我下午有私事 - 我不是你的保姆 It wasn't me, I had a personal thing this afternoon. -I'm not your babysitter.
只要你给咱们摩根士丹利赚钱 我就开心 If your appoint makes money for Morgan Stanley I'm happy!
好吧…听说你要生了 OK... Hey did I hear you're expecting?
那个…我们是打算要小孩… Ehh, we're expecting to be expecting...
- 虽然我不好解释得太清楚… - 那也是好事儿 I'd be upset clearing this out, but we're .. - That's exciting!
蛋蛋那里有个肿块 Lump.. in my ball
我去检查了一下 I'll go in for a scan -Hmm
结果是叫什么“附睾”肿了 Turns out i have large thing, called an epididymis
这东西环绕着蛋蛋 Which is a thing that goes around the ball
好像下面兜着个口袋一样 And is like a sack underneath.
我的附睾清晰可见 （附睾发炎） I have an extremely pronounced epididymis
肿得和睾丸一样大 Almost as large as another testicle on itself
伙计们听我说 辛西娅… So get this.... Cynthia.. Guys!
想让我辞职不干了 让我在佛蒙特州开个过夜旅馆 Cynthia wants me to quit! And open a B&B in Vermont.
挺好的主意 我挺想看你会怎么开旅馆 That's great! I'd love to see Mark Baum run a Bed and Breakfast!
估计是这样：吃你的燕麦粥吧 傻逼 Like: Here's your steel-cut oatmeal asshole!
马克不愿意讨好那些能开出支票的顾客 Mark refused to kiss the ring of the people with the checkbooks,
所以才委屈自己在摩根士丹利旗下开设基金 so he had to set up his fund under Morgan Stanley's umbrella.
他的团队也反映出他对金融系统的质疑态度 His small team his... distrust of the system.
你们一群变态 变态 You guys are sick.. You're sick!
她说 这工作让我不爽 She says, this job is making me unhappy.
可你不爽的时候反倒挺爽的 -But you're happy when you're unhappy!
我是在不爽的时候感觉挺爽的 I am happy when I'm unhappy!
文尼·丹尼尔 Vinny Daniel
你知道怎么做松饼吗 You know how to make a muffin?
文尼是马克手下懂数字的人 Mark's numbers guy.
你连怎么洗衣服都不知道吧 铺床呢 Do you even know how to do laundry? Make a bed? -Okay!
文尼小的时候 爸爸就因为一场恶性犯罪去世了 Vinny lost his father to a violent crime when he was young
和马克一样 他也从来不说起这事 Just like Mark, he didn't talk about it.
我就是不说 -I don't talk about that!
辛西娅这么认真 还真有可能赶他到佛蒙特州去 Cynthia's no joke, she could actually make him move to Vermont!
她都逼着我穿西服了 I mean, she made me start wearing a suit.
伯特·柯林斯 布朗大学的奥运会级别划船手 Porter Collins, former Olympic rower, went to Brown.
从上一个公司和马克一起过来 搞不懂为什么没人听马克的 He worked with Baum at a previous firm, and couldn't figure out why no-one listened to Baum.
他觉得马克提出的都是好点子 The guy with all the good ideas.
你是不是打错电话了 这里还有个叫顶尖基金的公司 Sir, yeah, i know, do you have the wrong FrontPoint? Cause there is another front-point in this same building that is Baum's
丹尼·摩西 是这群人里的乐天派 And Danny Moses, the optimist of the bunch.
他是交易鬼才 也这是大伙容忍他傻瓜式乐天派的唯一原因 And a hell of a trader, which is the only reason they put up with his bullshit optimism.
伙计 你对打错电话的也太客气了 You're a weird caller, you take longer with a wrong number than anybody else
这家伙是德意志银行的 说什么做空房贷证券 I mean... it's this guy... from... Deutsche, who was talking about shorting housing bonds.
说到中间 我才听出他找错人了 And then, in the middle of the call where I had realized he had the wrong front-point.
然后他说想要找8层的那个公司 and then... and then... cause he wanted the one on the eighth floor.
- 他想要做空房贷证券 - 嗯 He wanted to short housing bonds? - Hmmm
每天至少5个拨错的电话 -It happens like five times a day, that somebody uses the wrong front-point.
咱们得改个名了 We should change our name!
稍等 他想要做空房贷证券 Wait, wait... He wanted to short housing bonds?
赌房价跌吗 Who bets against housing?
- 资产担保证券指数到几点了 - 这指数什么意思 - What's the ABX at? - What's ABX?
- 用来跟踪次级房贷证券的价值 - 快睡你的觉 -It tracks sub-prime mortgage bond value. -Go back to sleep!
指数在… The ABX is at ... eh....
我的天 降下来了 去年到现在降了3点 这不对劲 Wow! it's down, It's down 3 points since last year, that's weird.
怎么一点动静都没听到过 I haven't heard a peep about that!
这人叫啥 杰瑞德…威内特 What was this guys name? Jared Vennett... Vennett
这是真的 这群中奖了的杂种因为我拨错的电话 That's right! These lucky sons of bitches caught wind
抓住了华尔街历史上最好的一桩交易 of one of the best trades in Wall-street history from a wrong number.
他们应该给我的错误电话线路抽成10% They should've paid 10 percent to my fuck up state system
叫杰瑞德·威内特 He was Jared Vennett, Vennett
- 杰瑞德·威内特 德意志银行 听着就不靠谱 - 听他说话就让人不爽 Jared Vennett, from Deutsche, sounded very sketchy. -Sounds like a douche-bag.
- 你们好啊 - 请坐 OK.. Hi.... how are you?! -Have a seat!
来自德意志银行的杰瑞德 我们洗耳恭听了 Hey mister Vennett from Deutsche Bank, who do we have?
- 你和多少人聊过 - 有几个 So, how many people have you talked to about this trade? - A few.
有意向的还不少 There's definitely some interest.
噢 Ohh..
我老板知道了非得弄死我不可 My boss would have my ass
你疯了吧 杰瑞 are you crazy Jer?
别废话 Get lost!
滚蛋 Fuck you!
所以你才打错电话给我们 Which is why you're here talking to us on the wrong number?
- 听着确实感兴趣的人不少哇 - 好吧 Sounds like there's a lot of interest. -Alright.
有的人和我聊天就是看笑话寻开心 你们也不想谈正事吗 A few people have us in, just to laugh at me on this deal, is that you?
你们也是这意思 Is that what this is?
我们不是这类人 就马克爱开这种玩笑 That's not what this is, that's just how Mark is.
和我们详细说说 Let's see what you got.
- 你闻到什么东西了吗 - 什么 I'm sorry, do you smell that, what is that? - What?
- 这是什么味道 - 古龙水吗 What's that smell? -Cologne?
不… No....
发财的机会 Opportunity!
不…钱的味道 No... Money.
我闻到钱味儿了… I smell money...
克里斯… Chris....
- 手脚利索点 - 抱歉 goddammit! -I'm sorry.
这就是你们房贷证券的构成 This is your basic mortgage bond.
开始很简单 Alright, the originals were simple.
就是几千个3A级房贷组合起来 They were just thousands of AAA-mortgages bundled together,
政府担保 guaranteed by the US-government.
而现代的房贷证券就不一样了 The modern ones are different.
是私营的 而且由分层份额构成 They're private. And they're made up of layers of tranches.
份额一词来源于法语 意为某物的一部分
最高的3A级最先偿还 Highest level AAA's getting paid first.
最差的B级最后还 会首先断供 The lowest rated B's getting paid last, taking on defaults first.
显然断供的B级 能要回更多的钱来 No obviously if you're buying B's you could make more money.
但是有点风险 有时候也可能偿还不了 But, they're a little risky, sometimes they fail.
克里斯… Chris...
某处开始 有些B级或者2B级 从有点风险 变成狗屎贷 Somewhere along the line, these B's and BB's went from a little risky to dogshit.
垃圾桶在哪 Where's the trash?
我说的是最低的信用评分 I'm talking rock-bottom Fico-scores.
没有收入核实 No Income-verification.
可调利率贷款…就是狗屎 adjustable rates... Dogshit!
违约率已经到了1至4个百分点 The default-rates are already up from one to four percent fellas.
等到了8%…也肯定会到的 And if they rise to eight percent... and they will!
那这些3B级的房贷也会一钱不值 A lot of these BBB's are going to zero too.
这…别离我这么近 And that.... You're too close...
这就是发财机会 Is an opportunity.
你说8%的警戒线 现在已经到4%了 OK, You're saying that at 8 percent the bonds fail and we're already at 4 percent?
- 没错 - 到了8就是世界末日了 That's right. -If they go to eight.... It's Armageddon.
- 是的 - 那怎么没人提到过这事儿 Yeah that's right. -How come nobody's talking about this?
你计算没问题吗 And you're completely sure of the math?
好好看看他… Look at him...
他是我的矿工 That's my Quant!
你的啥 -Your what?
我的量化研究员…我的数学专家 瞧瞧他 My quantitative... My maths specialist! Look at him!
看到有什么与众不同的吗 看看他的脸 You notice anything different about him? Look at his face!
你这也太种族歧视了… That's very racist
看看他的眼睛 我提示你们一下… Look at his eyes! I'll give you a hint..
他的名字叫做“杨” His name is Yang!
他得了国家数学竞赛的金牌…还是中国的竞赛 He won a national maths competition.. In China!
他连英语都不会说 He doesn't even speak English!
所以没错 我对数字有信心 Yeah! I'm sure of the math.
其实我名字叫“江” Actually, my name is JIANG
我也会说英语 and... I do speak English
杰瑞德喜欢这么说 是想要让我看起来更牛逼一些 Jared likes to say it though.. because he thinks it makes me seem more authentic
我…其实得了数学竞赛第二名 And... i got second in that national math competition
所以你让我们做空这堆积木吗 So.... You're offering us a chance to short this pile of blocks?
怎么做空 How?
用信用违约互换来做 With something called a credit default swap.
就像是证券的保险 不过如果证券完了 那你能拿到10倍的赔偿 It's like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust, you can make 10-to-1.
甚至有可能拿到20倍 崩溃趋势已经开始了 Even 20-to-1 return, and it's already slowly going bust.
10倍 20倍 怎么可能 10-to-1, 20-to-1.... No way!
也没人注意到 And no-one is paying attention.
没人亲自去了解 No-one is paying attention.
银行忙着卖证券 暗地里拿提成 Because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees to sell these bonds.
稍等…可你就是银行的人 But wait.... You are the bank
你为银行工作 那你的提成也富的流油吧 You work for the bank, i bet your margins are pretty nice and fat.
我的提成和这个没关系 Let's not talk about my margins by the way.
这是我私事…好比我看你衬衫不错 问你在哪买来的女装 好玩吗 Being nice and fat.... That's a nice shirt, do they make it for men?
你不替银行说话 Aren't you the bank?
我给银行打工 I work for the bank!
我脑子没卖给银行 I don't think like a bank
大银行小银行 我赚的是钱 Big banks, small bank... I like to make money.
好吧…让我直说 Alright...Let me put it this way....
这就像我来到失火大楼前面 I'm standing in front of a burning house,
现场让你们买火灾保险 And I'm offering you fire insurance on it
怎么可能这些证券像你说得那么差 -How can these underlying bonds be... as bad as you say?
没人管吗 It wouldn't be legal!
没人知道里面装的什么东西 Nobody knows what's in them!
没人知道在证券里有什么鬼 Nobody knows, what's in the bonds,
我见到过65%达到3A评级的 I've seen some that are 65 percent AAA-rating.
其实95%都是次级狗屎 That i know, for a fact, are filled with 95 percent sub-prime shit.
信用评分都低于550 （FICO评分300-850 700以上认为是优） With Fico's below 550
你就吹吧 Get the fuck out of here!
真想被我吹晕了吗 Want me to really blow your mind?
要是市场觉得一个证券风险太高了怎么办 When the market deems a bond too risky to buy, what do you think we do with it?
你们猜吧 Take a guess!
我不知道 才让你说 I don't know, you tell me!
好… Alright...
你以为像书本上说的用仓单存货抵押吗 You think we just warehouse it on the books?
假的 实际上我们重新打包 混上其他卖不出去的东西 No, we just repackage it, with a bunch of other shit that didn't sell
放到CDO里面卖 and put it into a CDO.
- CDO - 对 这东西叫CDO A CDO? -Yes... a CDO.
是什么 What is that?
把一些没人买的B 2B 3B级烂贷 Where we take a bunch of B's, BB's and BBB's that haven't sold
打包成一堆… and we put em in a pile...
数量差不多了 就忽然叫做“分散化投资”了 and when the pile gets large enough, the whole is suddenly considered 'Diversified'.
等着…评级机构的婊子们 and then... the whores of the rating agency,
评个百分之92到93的3A级别 其他屁都不放 Give it a 92 / 93 percent AAA-rating, no questions asked...
我操 你再说一遍 Holy... what! Say that again!
CDO 担保债务凭证 Collateralized Debt Obligations
理解CDO很重要 CDO才是让房产危机… It's important to understand, because it's what allowed the housing crisis
…祸害全国经济的关键 become a nationwide economic disaster.
让我们的世界顶级厨师安东尼·伯尔顿解释一下 Here's world-famous chef Anthony Bourdain to explain.
假设我正给一个周日下午的大餐厅备菜 OK, I'm a chef on a Sunday-afternoon setting the menu of a big restaurant.
我周五定购的鱼 就好比麦克做空的房贷证券 I ordered my fish on Friday, which is the mortgage bond that Michael Burry shorted.
有些鱼…没卖出去… But... some of the fresh doesn't sell..
我也不知道原因 没准这比目鱼成精了… I don't know why, maybe it just came halibut
有海豚一样的智商 has the intelligence of a dolphin.
那我该怎么办呢 So... what am i gonna do?
把这些3B评级的鱼扔掉吗 throw all this unsold fish, which is the BBB-level of bond, in the garbage?
认亏了 and take the loss?
没必要 No way!
我这么心灵手巧… Being a crafty and morally honorous chef that i am...
每种卖不掉的烂证券 我都扔到海鲜汤里去 Every crappy levels of the bond i don't sell... i throw into a seafood stew.
这不再是烂鱼 这是新东西 It's not old fish! It's a whole new thing!
最妙的地方就在于…卖给顾客的名头 是零售比目鱼 The best part is.... They're eating retailed halibut!
这…就是CDO That... is a CDO.
怎么可能这些东西被攒到一起 I just need to know how these could possibly be correlated.
你好像《爱探险的朵拉》主人公 老是第一个发现大新闻 You're like D- D- Dora the Explorering, you're the first person who has found this...
稍等…你是说房贷证券是狗屎 So.. hold on.. So mortgage bonds are dogshit?
CDO是猫屎包起来的狗屎 CDO's are dogshit wrapped in catshit.
对 就是这个理儿 Yeah... that's right!
机构们还把CDO当成国库券一样的宝贝 Institutions treat these CDO's like they're as solid as treasury bonds.
等着它们一钱不值吧 and they're going to zero..
不对啊 去年一年就卖了5千亿的房贷证券 No, that can't be right, there, there, are 500 billion in housing bonds sold last year alone
信用评级机构 银行 政府也掺和在里面 Ratings agencies, the banks.... the fucking government?
你这就像在说他们闭着眼开车 You're saying they're all asleep at the wheel?
没错 我整个部门都对这种狗屎流口水 Yeah! My whole department is long this stuff.
他们反倒叫我胆小鸡仔 They call me chicken little.
他们叫我泡沫男孩 They call me Bubble-boy.
A级…废了 A's ... Zero.
B级废了 2B级废了 B's.. Zero, BB's ..... Zero.
3B级…也是废品 BBB's .... Zero.
接下来就是这个了 And then that happens!
这…是啥 What... is that?
这就是美国的房产市场 That's America's housing market.
- 谢谢 - 你说得好棒 Thank you. - Fucking A Jared!
给我闭嘴 Shut your fucking mouth!
再见 杰瑞德 Bye Jared!
这不对劲 I don't like it!
他肯定有猫腻 He's playing us.
他在玩我们 他陷得太深了 拉人垫背来脱身 He's playing us, he's got too much skin in the game, and he's dumping his position.
要是他说的是真的呢 What if he's right?
- 你当然希望他说的是真的 - 我是希望 You want him to be right! -Yes, I do!
银行给我们信用卡的利息是25% The banks have given us twenty-five percent interest rates on credit cards.
助学贷款也坑了大家 普通人已经没法脱身了 They have screwed us on student-loans, so we can never get out from under.
然后这家伙 走到我办公室里说 Then this guy, walks into my office and says:
这些银行太贪婪 已经忽视了市场真相了 "Those same banks got greedy, they lost track of the market"
然后我还能通过他们的愚蠢赚钱 And i can profit off of their stupidity
我靠 我当然希望他是对的 Fuck! Yeah! I want him to be right!
你怎么能不讨厌他 你告诫我们注意的骗子特征他身上全有 I mean, how come you don't hate this guy? He's everything you taught us not to trust!
我恨不起来 他这么把自己的利益摆到台面上 我倒挺尊敬他 You can't hate him! He is so transparent in his self-interest that i kinda respect him.
我会从这种人手里买车吗 肯定不会 Would i buy a car from him?... No!
但是他说的房贷市场情况是否属实 咱们自己去调查看看 去调查 Is he right about the mortgage market? Let's find out. Let's find out!
我们只要回答两个简单问题 Look... It's two very simple questions:
房地产有没有泡沫 如果有 银行了解多少 Is there a housing bubble? And if there is... how exposed are the banks?
咱们赶快行动 如果情况属实 Let's get on this quickly too, because if he is right...
那有点钱的基金都会来找我们的麻烦 Every loser with a couple million bucks in a fund is gonna be jumping on us.
现在就出发 Let's go!
摩根大通啊 这里可是摩根大通啊 J.P. Morgan-Chase, J.P. Morgan-Chase.
别废话了 OK.. Don't!...Stop Saying J.P. Morgan-Chase!
查理·盖勒
我觉得咱们能交好运 I got a good feeling about this
就一个会面 别抱太大期望 Just a meeting though, you know...It's just a meeting!
杰米·希普利
会面天天都有… People have meetings all the time... You know!
人们喝完咖啡 就去会面… People drink their coffee, they have a meeting...
- 棕地基金 - 我们在这儿 Brownfield Funds? - Yes! yes!
我叫克里斯 泰德交易团队的前台 Hello, Hey! Chris... I 'm on Ted's Desk.
我叫查理 查理·盖勒 我叫杰米 杰米·希普利 I'm Charlie, I'm Charlie Geller, I'm Jamie, Jamie Shipley.. Hi!
我们太想在你们的交易平台上接入了 We're so excited to get setup on your trading platform!
很好啊 先坐下聊一聊 Cool! Here, eh.. have a seat a second.
好的 Alright!
我…泰德让我…先和你们见面聊聊 So I... Ted did ask ehm.. to do us some meeting in front.
可我一直找不到你们的宣传资料 but I eh... I couldn't find any marketing material on you guys..
那个…我们是刚从科罗拉多州博尔德搬过来 Oh... we just moved here from Boulder.
我能看看你们的招募书吗 Oh, can we see some of your offering documents?
其实 棕地基金用的是…我们自己的钱 Well Brownfield has it own... money...
我俩的存款…嗯 It's our money... Yeah.
说说你们资金规模是多大 Well can you tell us how much you manage?
好啊 我们现在做到3千万了… Of course! We're doing 30 million right now.... eh...
可是我们是4年前开始的 当时只有11万的本钱 But we started four years ago, with a hundred-ten thousand.
- 厉害啊 - 所以你看 Wow! -So as you can see,
我们的投资回报率相当厉害 that's pretty phenomenal returns.
我们想和摩根签署ISDA协议 We wanna get an ISDA-agreement with J.P. Morgan,
这样我们就能交易长线期权了 So we can deal in long-term options.
- 想法很好嘛 - 是啊 -That's really cool! Yeah!
ISDA协议 （国际掉期及衍生产品协议）
这个协议能够让投资者坐在“大亨”席位上
阻止愚蠢的新手扰乱高水平的交易
押注很大的交易员 如果没有ISDA
就像骑着羊驼 想要赢得超级印地赛车比赛冠军一样
你们的想法很好 That is so cool!
谢谢 Thank you!
不过呢…你们没达到ISDA的资本准入门槛 But eh.. you guys are under the capital requirements for an ISDA.
差多少 By how much?
嗯…差了… Er.. How much eh...
十亿四千七百万 One billion four-hundred-seventy millions
所以… So...
还差挺多 A lot!
这让我们看起来挺不专业的 是吗 This makes us look bad doesn't it?
我们连资金要求都不知道 That we didn't know what the capital requirements were.
怎么说呢 I..... eh..
影响是不太积极 It's not great!
不过呢 But, eh.....
你们保持这样的利润率 Keep up those returns
以后发达了 记得再给我们打电话 And give us a call way down the line you know?
好吗 OK?
好的 谢谢你克里斯 OK, of course! Thanks Chris!
- 祝你们好运 - 谢谢 Have a good one guys! -Thank you Chris!
操 Shit!
谁他妈会安排下午4点50谈正事儿 Who the fuck schedules a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon?
美国银行和贝尔斯登没回电话也就算了 Dude, B of A and Bear didn't even return our calls
- 连美联银行这种大众货也不屌我们 - 是啊 and even fucking Wachovia blew us off! - I know man!
这是其他一样在大厅里就被拍死的家伙的招股书 Here's the prospectuses of all the other losers who didn't make it past the lobby.
我真不想搞这个了… I don't think i can do this anymore..
伙计 我还年轻 还能干点正事儿 Yo, I'm young yet, i can still do something with my life!
我想回科罗拉多老家 连大麻都比这边的飘 I miss Colorado anyway. The weed's better!
先生们…请离开大厅 Gentleman... i need you to leave!
好 我们马上走 咱们走 Yep, Yeah we're going, Let's go!
看这个 看看这个 Look at this, Look at this!
这人说房地产市场就是一个大泡沫 this guy says that the housing market is a giant bubble!
这部分情节和真实情况有些出入 OK, so this part isn't totally accurate.
我俩不是在大厅发现了杰瑞德的推销资料 Now, we didn't find Jared Vennett's housing bubble pitch in a lobby of a bank that rejected us.
实际情况是 一个朋友告诉了查理这件事 Truth is... ehm.. A friend had told Charlie about it
我是从金融史学家Jim Grant的个人期刊上读到的 And I read about it, in Grant¡¯s Interest Rate Observer
不敢相信 This is crazy!
简直像胡说的东西 This is..... crazy stuff!
这儿说房贷证券的信用违约互换 Here, they're saying that there's 10-to-1 returns,
是10倍的收益比 on Credit Default Swaps for mortgage backed securities
现在房地产市场马上就要崩溃了 and the whole housing market is about to collapse.
对他俩来说 听到这消息简直像猫闻到了腥味一样 For Jamie and Charlie, the housing market doomsday prediction was music to their ears!
bgm:《Lithium》by Polyphonic Spree
他俩在杰米家的车库创业起家 They had started working out of Jamie's garage,
资金是杰米在东海岸倒卖帆船攒下来的11万 with a 110 thousand Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the east-coast.
我们的投资策略很简单 Our investment-strategy was simple.
没人愿意听到坏消息 所以人们往往低估坏事发生的概率 People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood.
简单又高明的策略 Their strategy simple and brilliant.
他说的对 What he said!
他俩发现 市场会低价贩卖 认为不可能发生的事情的期权 Jamie and Charlie found: Markets will sell options very cheaply on things they think will never happen.
这样损失会很小 而一旦得利… So, when they were wrong, they were wrong small. But when they were right.......
- 就能赚很多 -赚翻了 They were right big! - Boooooom!
期权交易的是“买卖权利” 不需要买卖实物
所以需要的资金量小 可以做空
几年间他们就把11万做到了3千万 Within a few years they had turned a 110 grand into 30 million
棕地基金
是时候去纽约了…不过进展并不顺利 Then it was time to go to New York City, And so far..... It wasn't going very well
要是这个买卖可以做呢 So what if it does seem interesting?
不行 没有银行会和我们签ISDA协议 Nope, no bank will give us our ISDA.
咱们没风掀不起浪啊… We're dead in the water...
这类交易完全搞不起 These kind of trades are totally out of the question!
咱们必须打电话给本 -We gotta call Ben!
打给他 Call Ben!
本·瑞克是退下来的交易员 以前在摩根新加坡分行 Ben Ricker was a former trader in Singapore for Chase.
深深厌恶这一行就金盆洗手了 Quit the whole game in disgust!
当年在科罗拉多州 本正好是杰米的邻居 He just happened to be Jamie's neighbor when they were in Colorado
因为本在遛狗 两人才认识 They met, walking dogs....
不过本的世界观更阴暗 But Ben was dark...
不只认为金融系统会崩溃 He didn't just think the whole system would fail
连全世界都会迟早毁灭 He thought the whole world was going down!
沙拉…真好吃 This salad's .... Oh.. hmmm good!
本·瑞克
当然了 这些都是我花园里新鲜采摘的 You know, every one of these vegetables is fresh from my garden
你们应该开一个自己的花园 You guys should start your own garden!
别用石油化工的东西污染土壤 What you gotta do is get your soil off petrol chemicals,
用木屑和尿来改良土壤 增加单硝酸酯 Use wood-ash and urine, help destroy the soil, creates mononitrate,
以后种子会成为硬通货 Seeds are gonna be the new currency!
不是孟山都公司的基因改造种子 我说的是原生态的健康种子 And not those Frankenseeds from Monsanto, I'm talking about good healthy organic seeds.
- 自己种菜 自给自足 - 这有点精神过敏了吧 Make yourself a garden, learn to live off the land! - A fucking lunatic!
本有大银行的实际经验 Ben had real experience in a big bank,
杰米和查理连曼哈顿的银行厕所都没进过 Jamie and Charlie, never even been in a Manhattan bank bathroom!
但本明确说过金盆洗手 绝不再碰金融 But Ben was done with the banking world, he was very clear!
- 这点你想到了吗 - 咱们还是算清楚吧 Do you realize that? -Alright, let's crunch some numbers,
- 然后再打电话给本 - 我不想算来算去 Then maybe we'll talk about calling Ben - I don't wanna crunch the numbers,
- 每次咱们都是算了再决定的 - 你们两个 When haven't we crunched the numbers? -Seriously guys!
- 赶快离开 - 好的 麻烦您了 -I need you out of here Of course, Yes Mam!
- 马上就走 - 我们马上走 One second! -We're going, we're going!
天哪 真是自找麻烦 这调研绝对是浪费时间 Oh god, i hate this! This is a total waste of time!
别担心了 想开点 Come on! Would you relax!
城外45分钟车程听说有新房 there's a housing develpment about forty-five minutes outside of town.
我们要不就先去那里看看 We may as well to check that out first.
希望一路上有古巴口味的餐馆 I hope there's some Cuban restaurants on the way there,
听说在迈阿密 古巴食品是一绝 because i heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami.
你这么开心简直幸灾乐祸 Please don't be Chipper in the face of me being miserable!
我恨你 It really makes me hate you!
我想吃好的 还惹着你了 How is wanting to eat good food, being Chipper?
你好 Hello?
有事吗 你们想干嘛 What's up man? What do you want?
我们正在调查已经90天断供房贷的房主 Hello, I'm surveying mortgage owners who are over 90 days delinquent
我找哈维·汉姆西 I'm looking for a Harvey Humpsy
你找我房东的狗干嘛 You want my landlord's dog?
你房东用狗的名字填了房贷申请表 Your landlord filled out his mortgage application using his dogs name?
看来是咯 I guess so!
等等 这混蛋没有再交房贷吗 Wait, has that asshole not been paying his mortgage?
我可是一直在交房租啊 Coz, I've been paying my rent!
他是有90天没还房贷了 Well, yeah he is over 90 days delinquent
说真的 Seriously man!
我是不是要搬家了 Am i gonna have to leave?
我小孩才刚安排好在这儿上学 My kids just got setup in this school man!
你好啊 Hey.... How are ya?
你得直接问问你的房东了 Ehm.. you should talk to your landlord about that
我这里没有什么能帮到你的了 I'm sorry i don't have anymore information, but you ehm....
祝你们好运 You have a great day!
真的…不会真的有事儿吧 Seriously... Is everything gonna be ok?
你得问…你得问房东 You should call... You should call him!
打电话给他 You should give him a call!
错不在我身上 我可是一直在交房租 It's not my fault dude! I've been paying!
你好 Hello!
好像有人走得很急 I think somebody just left
就搬走了电视 All they took was the TV.
这不对劲 It's weird!
连厨房台面都没打扫 They didn't even clean up the counter
逾期通知
总欠款5789 抱歉啦
老天爷 Oh, god!
简直像核污染的切尔诺贝利 It's like Chernobyl!
这大概有100间房子 也就4个人在住 It's like a hundred houses, it can't be four people living here.
- 我操 - 靠 No, fuck that! -Shit!
bgm:《Barbarito Torres》by Lagrimas Negras
bgm:《Master of Puppets》by Metallica
奇幻小说《沙娜拉的后裔》 后裔Scion即为基金名字赛恩
他在里面呆了7个小时了 He's been there for seven hours
下跌9.3% 赛恩净值
- 他在看什么 - 我听说他崩溃了 What is he looking at? -I heard he had a breakdown!
已经破罐子破摔了 He¡¯s letting the fund tank
贝利博士办公室 Dr. Burry's office
他还是希望你发邮件给他 稍等 No, he actually prefers that you e-mail him. Excuse me!
你好 劳伦斯 Hey Lawrence!
我们对你预测宏观经济趋势的能力没有信心 We have no confidence in your ability to identify macro-economic trends.
你坐飞机来就为了说这个 You flew here to tell me that? Why?
每个…个…人都能看出来房地产有泡沫 Every, E- E- Anyone can see there's a real-estate bubble
没人能看出有泡沫 你的想法才是泡沫 Actually no-one can see a bubble, that's what makes it a bubble
这么说太蠢了 That's dumb, Lawrence.
总有线索可以找啊 There are always markers!
房贷欺诈 Mortgage fraud
2000年以后翻了5倍 平均收入却没涨 Quintupled since 2000 and the average take-home pay is flat, but ...
房价暴涨 意味着房子不再用来住 而是投资品 Home-prices are soaring, that means the homes are dead,not assets
那你这个硅谷来的麦克 So Mike Burry of San Jose, a guy who....
在连锁理发店理发 不穿鞋 gets his haircut at Supercuts, and doesn't wear shoes,
你就比格林斯潘和财政部长懂得多 knows more than Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson....
我虽然没和财政部长聊过 不过我确实更懂 I haven't talked to Hank, but yes he does.
你还挺萌啊 你这是在讽刺自己吗 That's cute, that's cute! Are you being sarcastic with us Mike?
劳伦斯…我这人不懂什么叫讽刺 Lawrence.... I don't know how to be sarcastic!
我也不会开玩笑 I don't know how to be funny
我不知道礼尚往来 I don't know how to ... work people..
可我对数据是真的懂 I just know how to read numbers!
你现在做空多少了 How big is your short position right now?
嗯… Eh....
13亿 1.3 billion
保费交多少 And the premiums?
我们…大概…交… eh, we pay ... eh... roughly...
8千万到9千万 80 to 90 million
每年交 有点多 毕竟咱们开了先例 Each year, which is surprising, because i was the first to do this trade
等着吧 肯定能赚钱 我最先趟的道 但方向是对的 Watch, It will pay! I may have been early, but I'm not wrong!
你就会吹 你就会吹 It's the same thing! It's the same thing Mike!
你管理的基金有多少 5亿5千5百万 You're managing a fund of what? 555 million?
六年内 交保费就赔光了 In six years, it will all be gone!
单单这一项 On one bet
07年第二季度可调利率就发威了 The second quarter of '07 is when the adjustable rates kick in!
肯定会出现大批断供 The defaults will skyrocket!
也就你这么想 Says you!
在合约到期前 基金里有多少钱可以撤回 就算半年之内吧 How much is eligible for withdrawal before they're due? Say in the next two quarters.
如果你的投资人恐慌了的话 If your investors panic
3亿零2百万 302
不妙啊 麦克 My god Mike!
不会有人往外取钱的 那样损人不利己 No-one will pull out, that would be suicide man
今年虽然下跌了17% 但相信我就行了 而且他们一直相信我 Down 17 percent for the year, but if they trust me, and they trust me!
没人相信你 No-one trusts you!
- 没人 - 我写了几封信给投资人了 No-one! -I've sent several e-mails to my investors
让他们了解情况 Letting them know that the.. the....
07年的第二季度 我们房贷投资就能盈利 It's the second quarter of '07 is when our housing position shows returns
我说得很清楚了 and ehm... I've been very clear!
你就等着大家撤资吧 People will withdraw their money!
为啥 谁会这么傻 Why? You'd have to be so stupid!
如果我们基金的资本减少过多 If, if if the funds capital drops too much....
那么互换合同就会自动失效 then the swaps contracts are voided
然后银行… and then the banks....
就会拿走所有钱 一个子儿都不剩 get to keep all of it, all of it!
合同会自动失效 The contracts are voided?
合同会自动失效 The contracts are voided!?!
我操 Holy shit!
你这臭不要脸的 O, motherfucker!
麦克 Michael....
把我的钱还我 Give me my money back.
麦克 听见了吗 我要退回我的钱 Michael, do you hear me? I want my money back!
你他妈的把我的钱给我 Give me my fucking money back!
你这小兔崽子 You motherfucker!
房产市场正处在一个小不丁点的低谷里 The market is in an itsy-bitsy little gully right now
好像大伙说“玩得太嗨了 咱们稍微缓缓神” Like everybody said: "OK, that was crazy, let's just all calm down!"
那房子刚建成的时候 我35万卖了出去 I sold that house for 350, the year it was built.
两年以后 就值48万 然后58万5 这是一年半以前的价格 two years later... 480, then 585, maybe eighteen months ago.
这对夫妻在去年花65万买了下来 This couple bought it for 650 last year!
倒霉碰上房价跌了 只能按原价卖呗 He'd let it go for that....high jump
他肯定觉得不值 不过会放手的 It will break his heart, but he'll let it go
那他为什么要卖房 Why is he selling?
夫妻俩现在都没工作 Neither one is working right now
马琳 你说他们急于出手是吧 Marlene, you'd say they're motivated, right?
和这片的人积极性差不多吧 As motivated as one can be in this neighborhood.
左边这房子 才是真正急于出手 This house on the left, I'd say they're properly motivated.
我说 急于出手的也太多了点 Wow! A lot of people seem very motivated.
房价小触底嘛 大伙神经过敏 It's just a gully that's all. Just nerves
那…我们把车停到哪儿 So... where do we stand?
我得和我老婆商量一下 I need to talk to my wife
再等 过了这村就没这店了 ehm.. This market won't last!
其实 能给我介绍个房贷经纪人吗 你推荐的 不错的 Actually, can i talk to a mortgage broker? Anybody you recommend? Anybody you like?
有啊 是有个绝佳人选 Yes, yes, There's someone, absolutely!
这小妞肯定喜欢我啊 我帮她赚钱赚翻了 Yeah, bitch better like me, sent her ass to Cabo!
连摩根士丹利都等着要我们了 So is Morgan Stanley recruiting us? Is that..
不是…银行拥有我们的对冲基金 No, eh no. The bank owns our hedge-fund
但我们其实不归银行管 我们主要投资金融服务公司 We're not really a part of it, we invest in financial service companies.
我们过来是想了解这里房贷行业的情况 We're trying to understand the residential mortgage business.
你每个月能办多少笔贷款 How many loans do you write each month?
没留意过 大概60笔吧 I don't know, about 60.
4年前呢 What was it four years ago?
10笔…15笔的样子 Ten.... but maybe fifteen.
以前我是酒吧招待 现在我连船都有了 I was a bartender, now i own a boat!
这里面有多少是可调利率的房贷 （前几年低利率 然后调高） So, how many of these are eh.. adjustable rate mortgages?
嗯 绝大多数 Well, most.
是 我觉得有90%左右 Yeah, I'd say about ninety percent
近几年这种房贷提成飙上天了 The bonuses on those skyrocketed a few years ago
我们全靠这个赚钱 Adjustables are bread and honey
那房贷申请有被拒的时候吗 So, do applicants ever get rejected?
怎么可能 Seriously?
要是他们被拒 我就不称职了 Look if they get rejected I suck at my job!
他们没钱也能贷到款 Even if they have no money?
我们公司有一种“忍者贷款” Well, my firm offers a NINJA loan.
不需要收入和职业证明 收入一栏空着都可以 No Income No Job Application, I just leave the income-section blank if i want.
公司不在乎 Corporate doesn't care.
- 大伙想要房 公司顺应民意呗 - 你当然愿意 - These people just want homes, and they go with the flow. - Good for you.
你们公司都不查验的吗 Your companies don't verify?
我星期五下午签了房贷合同 If I write a loan on Friday afternoon,
大银行周一中午就会买走 Big bank is gonna buy it by Monday lunch.
见怪不怪 我们也一样 Deal! Same here!
- 你们能等会吗 - 行啊 Could you hold on a second? -Yeah
我搞不明白 为啥他们这么坦白 I don't get it... Why are they confessing?
他们不是在坦白…他们这是在吹牛 They're not confessing.... They're bragging!
贷款的人真的知道这种贷款的风险吗 Do people have any idea what they are buying?
我一般找移民 I focus on immigrants!
等他们还不起房贷睡大街了… 你让他们签什么都愿意 Once they find out they're getting homeless.. They'll sign where you tell em to sign.
不会问问题 不理解利率是什么东西 They don't ask questions, don't understand the rates.
你也找移民下手吗 And you targeting on immigrants too?
移民的信用分对他来说还太好 Their credit isn't actually bad enough for him.
我不跟钱过不去 Look I'm a yield guy
一笔固定利率的良性房贷 我只赚两千 I make two thousand on a fixed rate prime
可做一笔可调利率的次级贷 我能赚一万 But i CAN make ten thousand on a sub-prime adjustable
说真的 没有脱衣舞女郎的帮忙 我也开不上宝马7系 Trust me, I'm not driving that 7-series without strippers
她们信用评分都不行 可是都超级有钱 No-one on the pole has good credit, and they're all cash-rich.
我好像听沃伦·巴菲特说过类似的话 I think I read Warren Buffett said something like that.
啥 巴菲特是谁 What? Who's Warren Buffett?
你说的脱衣舞女郎…就是露肉的那种 OK, So, strippers.... like exotic dancers...
光屁股的 Nude, you know
露着胸的 Topless..
- 脱衣舞女郎 - 对 Strippers? -Yeah, Hmmmm.
- 能帮我们介绍个吗 - 当然行 Can you introduce us? Yes!
没问题 Yes!
我一直选还贷方式多的可调房贷 我毕竟是自由职业者 I always get option-pay adjustable. I'm a private contractor.
听不清 抱歉 Can't hear you, I'm sorry!
我一直选还贷方式多的那种可调房贷 我自己干 需要点灵活性 I always get option to pay adjustable, I'm a private contractor, i need the flexibility.
你怎么跟房贷公司说你的职业 And you tell the mortgage company what you do?
我写的是：治疗师 I write: Therapist
- 你可以摸我 - 一直 You can touch me! -Always?
那只能在VIP房间 Only in V.I.P.
不不不 误会了 你说你一直选可调利息房贷 No, no, no you say you always do adjustables
你一套房子不止一笔贷款吗 And you have more than one loan on a property?
大伙都这样 Everybody does!
- 至少我们这儿这样 - 我没听明白 At least down here -I'm sorry what?
每个人都这样 至少我们这儿是 Everybody does! At least down here
这样首付只要5% That way you'll only put down like five percent
可房价现在不涨了 对吧 Well prices have leveled off though, right?
是啊 暂时不涨 Yeah, it's a gully
你能不能别晃来晃去的 我照样付你钱 Would you mind not moving anymore? I'll still pay you!
抱歉…有人盯着 Sorry... We're not alone.
你听我说…如果房价不涨 OK, look.. If home-prices don't go up,
你就不能重新贷款了 You are not going to be able to refinance
你就陷到房贷里脱不开身 And you're going to be stuck paying
等利率优惠期过了 月供涨到多少是多少 whatever your monthly payment is once it jumps up, whenever your teaser rate expires
加上逾期的利滚利 可能涨到200%到300% Your monthly's could go up two- to three hundred percent!
詹姆斯说我总可以重新贷款的 James says i can always refinance!
那…他…就是个骗子 Well... He's ... A liar.
至少对这种情况 他很可能是错的 Actually in this particular case, James probably is wrong.
200% Two-hundred percent?
我所有房贷的 On all my loans?
你什么意思 不就是一套房两笔贷款吗 What do you mean? We're talking about two loans on one house right?
我有5套房 I have five houses
外加一套公寓房 And a condo..
有泡沫 Hey, there's a bubble!
你怎么知道的 How do you know?
相信我 打电话给杰瑞德 Trust me. Call Vennett,
买上5千万房贷证券的信用违约互换 Buy 50 million in swaps on the MBS
买哪个 Garabaldi 4 3B评级 What do we got? Garabaldi IV, Triple B!
马克 你确定吗 Mark, are you sure?
确定 这泡沫太扯淡了 Yeah, yeah! It's time to call bullshit!
哪些有泡沫 Bullshit on what?
这儿他妈的全都是泡沫 Every fucking thing!
重新贷款:房价上涨 借房贷的人通过重新贷款 可获得最新的更低利息房贷 代价是延迟还清
银行可以把房贷当作"未来收款权"卖给投资人 所以银行有动力重新贷款 这样可以当新的再卖一次
银行的分期还贷计划 一般前期是优先还利息 所以重新贷款后 原放贷银行并不吃亏
而房价下跌时,银行无法卖出房贷给投资人 自己承担风险,就不再愿重新贷款了
是美国最暴走的对冲基金吗 Is this America's angriest hedge-fund?
听好了 我还有最后一个问题问你 Hi listen, I got one last question for you
你想怎么蹂躏我们 How are you fucking us?
何必说的这么露骨呢…文尼 There's a nice way to say that Vinnie...
我没开玩笑 I'm serious
我们会买你的互换 但前提是你说清楚打算怎么蹂躏我们 We'll buy your swaps, but only if you say how you're fucking us.
我不想蹂躏你 文尼 我想要亲吻你 I'm not fucking you Vinnie, I'm kissing you
看着你的双眼 让你爽 I'm looking deep into your eyes as i make love to you Vinnie.
我正和盘托出本世纪最好的买卖给你 I'm handing you the deal of the century on a fucking platter!
我能得到什么好处 What do I get out of it?
这还不简单…我之前做的证券每月赔进去2千万 Easy..I got a 20 million a month negative carry
老板早就想要了我的命 认为我神经不正常了 I got bosses trying to pull the plug, because they're thinking I'm out of my fucking mind
明白吗 Alright?
我们做成了这笔买卖 我之前的问题都不是事儿 We make this trade, those problems aren't so big anymore
当然了…互换是黑市 And sure... Swaps are a dark market so...
怎么定价我说了算 I set the price, whatever price i want.
等你收回投资的时候 我肯定会让你大出血 And when you come for the payday, I'm gonna rip your eyes out
从你那里大赚一笔 I'm gonna make a fortune
但好消息是 你也不会在乎的 But the good news is Vinnie, you're not gonna care
因为你赚的钱太多 你都没空管我 Cause you're going to make so much fucking money!
这就是我能得的好处 That's what I get out of it
想知道你能得到什么吗 Wanna know what you get out of it?
你现在先拿到冰淇淋 热巧克力 香蕉和坚果配料 You get the ice-cream, the hot-fudge, the banana and the nuts!
我现在能拿到装饰糖粒 Right now I get the sprinkles
如果这事儿最终能成 And yeah.... if this goes through...
我能吃到顶上的樱桃 I get the cherry.
但你能吃到圣代冰激凌 But you get the sundae Vinnie
除了樱桃 剩下的全是你的 You get the sundae!
行 我信你 Alright, I'll buy that.
谢谢你解释 Thank you!
那你拿个主意 So what do you say?
想让我帮你坐庄吗 Want me to make you a market?
我们买5千万 We'll take 50 million
Garabaldi 4 3B评级 Garabaldi-4 Triple-B
准备好签字笔吧 我来准备好文书 Sharpen your pencils, I'll get the paperwork ready
我就操了 Aahhh... Fuck you too!
好 YES!
这就对了 that's right!
2006年5月
他电话号码太多 我老忘了 He has so many numbers, and i always forget,
- 应该打哪个电话 他明确和我说过 - 就先选第一个吧 Which one he prefers, cause he's very specific! -Just pick the first one
- 不知道对不对 - 试试吧 I don't know if it's the first one -Just try it!
好吧 OK
2002美国司法部长自己创作 并当众演唱的爱国歌曲《让雄鹰高飞》
他因推行爱国法案侵犯隐私等行为广受争议 媒体常用此歌来恶搞讽刺
成年人每月用水量
彭博金融资讯
我是本·瑞克 Ben Ricker
本你好 我是杰米 Hey Ben it's Jamie!
杰米 我告诉过你不要打这个电话 Jamie, you know you're not supposed to use this line.
我就知道… Told ya...
试试这14个号码的第2个 OK, let's try number two out of fourteen.
本·瑞克 Ben Ricker
本 你这不是自找麻烦吗 你都退休了好吧 Ben, why do you do that man? You're a retired trader, ok..
- 没人监听你电话 - 国安局有520亿的预算 No-one is listening to your calls! -The NSA has a 52 billion dollar budget
每秒能监听上千万个电话 你以为他们吃闲饭的 and the ability to monitor tens of millions calls a second, you think they're not using it?
那我保证不会在一句话里同时说 OK, I promise i will refrain from saying,
你的名字和放射脏弹这词 Ben Ricker and dirty bomb in the same sentence
- 我的天 - 真受不了 Jesus! -I'm sorry dude!
本·瑞克 Ben Ricker
你看到我们发给你的东西了吗 Did you get a chance to look at what we sent you Ben?
我是查理 我也在旁边 It's Charlie.... I'm here too!
查理 你好 我看了 稍等 Hi Charlie, Yeah I did, Hold on!
本 你还听着吗 Ben, you still there?
嗯 Yeah
我就直说吧 I'll be honest gentlemen
你俩把我吓坏了 you scared the shit out of me!
那说明这是真东西对吧 这叫杰瑞德的家伙没胡说 That's a good thing right? That means that this Vennett guy is not wrong!
是没有 No, he's not!
太好了 Cool
你们对CDO还了解什么 Tell me more about these CDO's
好的 杰瑞德只是提到了CDO (担保债务凭证 再打包的房贷证券) Yeah yeah, ehm, OK Vennett mentioned the CDO's, but actually,
- 我俩实际看了 情况比他想的还糟 - 数据离谱的像假的一样 We took a look and they're way worse then even he realizes -These things don't even make sense Ben.
- 连预测模型都用不了 - 打包的CDO比房贷证券规模还要大100倍 We can't even model them -It's a hundred times bigger than the MBS
然后有90%还是3A评级 and ninety percent AAA-rating?
- 是啊 超过90% - 干的漂亮 Yes, over ninety percent - Incredible!
我仔细看了你打算做空的CDO Yeah, I took a good hard look at the CDO's you want to short.
天才的想法 CDO就是包装精美的屎 They're brilliant! Worthless, total crap!
杰米 厉害厉害 Jamie, very good!
怎么说呢…我找屎还挺擅长的 What can i say.. I, I'm, I'm, good at finding shit!
本 我们打算做空2B和3B级别的 风险也相对小一些 So Ben, we shorted the BB's and the BBB's, and the risk is relatively low,
回报率差不多是25倍 Pay-up is like 25-to-1
那你们找我干啥 我洗手不干了 OK, so why are you calling me? I don't do this anymore!
本 我们… Look, Ben...
我们需要你帮忙搞定ISDA协议 We need you to help us get the ISDA.
有了持枪证 我们就能开干了 If we get a hunting license, we can short this crap
我们知道你恨华尔街 所以不会让你去做交易 We know you hate Wall-street, we're not asking you to do the trading
只是 请求你… We're simply asking you to...
帮助我们 To help us.
能坐到“大亨”席位就行 To get a seat at the fucking table
那种地方可是乌烟瘴气的很 It's a pretty ugly table guys
本 整个系统已经出大乱子了 Look Ben, the system fucked up in a big, big way here, OK?
我们比所有人都先得到了消息 And somehow... we , eh.. know before anyone else.
这是绝对是千载难逢的机会 You know, this is a once in a lifetime deal!
我在考虑 I'm thinking
好 我打电话给德意志银行 OK, I'll call Deutsche Bank
太感谢你了 本 Thank you Ben!
还有贝尔斯登公司 那里也有些把柄可以抓 Oh and Bear, what about Bear? They have some apprehensible product!
好 贝尔肯定来者不拒 -OK, Bear will trade with anybody!
欢迎来到纽约 市长麦克·彭博
bgm:《Feel Good Inc》by Gorillaz
♪骆驼上的铁屋子正越来越热 City's breakin' down on a camel's back
♪逆来顺受的他们还装睡不醒 They just have to go 'cos they don't know whack
♪娱乐至死的东西更吸引眼球 So all you fill the streets it's appealing to see
♪有被洗脑的自由又何必逃脱 You won't get out the county, 'cos you're bad and free
♪你们追求名利去醉生梦死 You've got a new horizon it's ephemeral style
♪阴沉的地方人人抑郁寡欢 A melancholy town where we never smile
♪我只想听到外面希望之声 And all I wanna hear is the message beep
我看看能不能把材料递上去 I'll see if i can push it through
帮我们谢谢杰瑞德 And oh, thank Jared for us.
♪仅存的梦想让我不敢入睡 My dreams, they gotta catch me, 'cos I don't get sleep, no
2007年6月29日 iPhone第一代发售
2007年伊拉克战争 美国开始撤军
Trinette拍摄的在加长轿车里享受的夫妇
真相就像诗词
可绝大多数人都讨厌诗词
在华盛顿一个酒吧偶然听到
断供的房贷达到新的1百万高点
2007年1月11日
是我 马克 现在就把电话转给文尼 Hi, it's Mark, I need to talk to Vinnie right now!
稍等 Wait a second
我们就是想让你们解释清楚…为什么 we just asking you to explain to us.. we need to know why
我们看到的和你说的完全不同 just how it is that you are fucking us, because what we are seeing here is..
快去摩根士丹利大厦 Morgan Stanley building fast!
我们屏幕上显示的东西难道不一样吗 能不能让同一个人和我们说话 Are we hooked up at the same computer-screens? -Can we talk to one person please?
你说你在哪儿 OK, yeah. -What do you mean, you're in the tower?
文尼 能听见吧 Vinnie, are you there?
- 马克 我能听见 - 你听说了吗 Mark, are you there? Hello? -Yeah, Yeah, Did you hear?
房贷断供已经破记录了 Mortgages defaults have gone through the roof!
你那里房顶有人跳楼吗 Anybody jumping off the building yet?
为什么要跳 次级贷证券可是在上涨 Why would they? Sub-Prime mortgages are up
- 怎么可能 - 杰瑞德让我们今天再投入190万的抵押 What? -Vennett wants 1.9 million more in collateral by-close
杰瑞德让我们追加抵押 Vennett's asking us to post collateral
怎么会这样 What the hell is going on?
不知道 但德意志银行电话一直在催 We don't know, but Deutsche is on the phone demanding payment
- 把杰瑞德给我叫过来 这小畜生 - 给杰瑞德打电话 Call Vennett, call that little shit! -Call Vennett!
让他快点滚过来 Tell him to get his ass down here
次级房贷断供越来越多 So, sub-prime loans go bad,
但是它们组成的房贷证券却更值钱了 but sub-rime bonds, which are made up of sub-prime loans, are more valuable?
我也奇怪 他们要今天必须交齐1千9百万 I know. They want another 1.9 million by market close
信用评级机构呢 穆迪公司 标准普尔 他们调低了CDO或房贷证券的评级吗 What about the ratings-agencies? Moody's, S&P? Are they downgrading the CDO's or mortgage bonds
- 现在评级什么样 - 还是原封不动 Where are the ratings of this? -They're the fucking same!
没变 还都是3A评级 Nope, They're all still AAA!
见鬼了 What the hell!
他妈的在逗我 这帮混蛋 不要脸的 Are you fucking kidding me? Those fuckers, those motherfuckers!
他们对外评级以后就钻到钱眼里去了 They go public and all the care about is their bottom-line and their shit!
马克 还有事… Mark, that's not all...
摩根士丹利风险部的过来了 他们找了你老板 The Morgan Stanley risk-guys are here -They called in Kathy Tao
想说服她卖掉我们的互换 I'm trying to convince her to make her sell us swaps
他们觉得这些保费肯定是被套牢的买卖 Apparently eh, tying up securing some insurance payments
等着房地产崩溃是不明智的投资 So, a housing Armageddon is not prudent investing.
老板怎么说 What did Kathy say?
没表态 她一直问这是不是你的核心投资 Nothing yet, she keeps asking if this is one of your crusades
明白了 你走过去 语气平静 非常礼貌的 OK, I want you to walk back in there and very calmly, very politely
让这些风险评估师都他妈滚蛋 Tell the risk-assessors to fuck off!
然后过来和我在标准普尔碰头 我们要找乔治亚聊聊 And then meet me over at Standard & Poors, we're gonna talk to Georgia
把杰瑞德那混蛋叫过来 看我不把他脑浆打出来 Get that fuck Jared Vennett I want to bash his fucking head in
嗯…各位 Uh, gentlemen...
我刚和马克·鲍姆谈过了 I spoke with Mark Baum
他的原话：都他妈滚蛋 He says: to fuck off!
纽约百老汇大道 铜牛
百老汇大道25号 标准普尔评级机构
我眼睛不好使啊 I don't see a damn thing.
我选的眼科医生总是特别忙 Aaah, my eye-doctor is always busy
只要能预约上我就得去 今天上午就这么废了 I end up taking any appointment they'll give me and then the whole morning gets shot to hell!
那么… So...
好咧 Alrighty
顶尖基金的朋友们 FrontPoint Partners
标准普尔有什么能帮到你们的吗 How can Standard & Poors help you?
我们想弄明白 为什么评级机构 不下调次级贷证券的评级 Well, we don't understand why the ratings-agencies haven't downgraded sub-prime bonds
证券包含的房贷 很明显情况在恶化 since the underlying loans are clearly deteriorating
断供率是让人们担心了 不过数字波动还在我们的合理模型之内 Well, the delinquency-rates do have people worried, but they're actually within our models
那… So
你说没事就没事 Says you?
你确信这些证券里的房贷是可靠的 You're convinced the underlying mortgages in these bonds are solid loans?
- 这是我们的观点 - 打开天窗说亮话 That is our opinion yeah. -Oh crack the tape!
你看过底层房贷的数据吗 Have you looked at the loan-level data?
- 你以为我们整天在干啥 - 现在只要有信用分 就肯定能拿到房贷 What you think we do here all day? They're giving these loans to anyone with a credit-score and a pulse
打断一下 你认为我们工作是什么 Excuse me sir, what do you think we do here all day?
我不明白 要不我们也不会过来 Not sure, I guess that's why we're here.
我不明白 What I don't understand
我们再三反复核对过了 We can't re-recheck and then check again!
如果这些房贷证券这么稳定可靠 If these mortgage-bonds are so stable, so solid
你先检查一下你同事吧 you should check your friend
你有没有… Have you ever refused to rate?
- 做你的梦吧 - 我们有理由这么评级 that's delusional! -We stand behind it
你有没有给过这里任何一个证券 评级低于3A级别 Have you ever refused to rate any of these bonds upper-tranches AAA?
我们能看看对应的材料吗 Can we see the paperwork on those?
我没有义务给你们看内部信息 不管你是谁 Oooh, I'm under no obligation to share that information with you, whoever you might be.
你就回答我的简单问题 给我们个去年低于3A评级的名字 Just answer the question Georgia, can you name one time in the past year?
你去看了实际数据 最后也没有给银行想要的3A评级 Where you checked the tape and you didn't give the banks the AAA-percentage they wanted?
如果我们不这么评 人家就去隔壁的穆迪评级了 If we don't give them the ratings, they'll go to Moody's right down the block.
我们不配合 那我们的对头就会抢走客户的钱 If we don't work with them they will go to our competitors
这地方就这么运转 我们有什么办法 Not our fault, simply the way the world works.
- 我靠 - 明白了吧 Holy shit! -Ah yes, now you see it!
我什么都没说过 And I never said that!
你们就是卖信用评级的赚钱机构 You're selling ratings for fee's
信用商店 A ratings shop
你们不赚这么多钱也能维持运行啊 You could afford to make less, make less.
没人这么要求我 Nobody said that!
这不是我能做主的 我有老板管着 And it is not my decision, I have a boss.
- 你在逗我 - 我没空跟你开玩笑 Are you kidding me? -No I am not kidding you!
这就是你的立场 Is that the angle you're taking?
这意思是只要有老板的人… So now anybody who has a boss,
都不用为任何图财害命的勾当负责了 你当自己四岁小孩吗 Can't be held responsible for doing shitty and illegal things! -What are you? Four?
我不是四岁孩子 No, eh, eh, I am not four!
不是不负责 Mister Baum, I am not, no!
我倒奇怪 你们来找我的动机是什么 And I wonder, I wonder, what your incentives might be.
是不是评级变了 对你们有好处啊 Is it maybe in your best interest to have the ratings changed? Is it, perhaps?
信用违约互换你们买了多少 How many credit default swaps do you own?
立场和对错是两回事 Doesn't make me wrong
你俩还装什么好人 just makes you a hypocrite!
bgm:《District Divided》by Darkest Hour
下跌11.3% 赛恩净值
房贷断供 房贷证券却更值钱了 真见鬼了 Mortgage-delinquencies went up and the CDO's got more valuable, unbelievable!
是啊 走势太反常了 We know, it's completely backwards!
我给贝尔斯登公司的朋友打电话 他连CDO是啥都不知道 I just called an old friend at Bear he didn't even know what a CDO is.
是啊 我刚给贝尔和德意志汇过去7万块钱 Yeah, I just had to wire Bear and Deutsche seventy thousand dollars
这感觉 就好像现在二加二等于… It's like two plus two equals...
屎 Fish!
好啊 Great!
这里面显然有黑幕 You bought into a rigged game
要是钱赔光了 我就得回去家里蹲 We lose everything.. -I'm gonna have to move back in with my mom!
我可不想我妈管我 can't do that
我等会还有事儿忙 Well, alright i got a colon in a couple of mins
等一下 别挂电话 Wait a minute, hold on! Ben!
本 听我说 Ben, look!
有可能银行完全不懂CDO是什么东西 或者 Either the banks are clueless and they don't know how to value these CDO's or...
或者他们想用沙子把屎盖起来 藏着掖着 they're suck crooks that... the CDO's are worth shit, and they're hiding it!
我觉得我们应该再买更多 I think we should buy more swaps!
- 你说啥 - 别废话 合同上白纸黑字写得清楚 - What? -Suck it up and pay up fellas we made a deal
不行 不行 No way, No!
你小子玩我们吗 还有脸过来 Are you fucking kidding me? you come in here you fuck up -Are you fucking seriously?
- 不不不 - 行 No, no, no! -Yeah!
你脑子烧了吗 You're unbelievable!
不行不行不行 No, no, no!
建议你每年灌一次肠来排排毒 Seriously, colonic once a year!
你就是个跑腿的 装逼不成等着被操吧 Ass! -You got a matching little butler-boy you butt-fuck!
都发泄完了 Are you done?
- 完了… - 刚才大声骂 我都闪腰了 Think so yeah -God i pulled a muscle in my back from yelling
房贷断供率一直在涨 Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up!
你给我们房贷证券的报价还更高了 Yet you quote us a higher price on the bonds
你给我解释清楚 这显然不合道理 Please explain that to me! There's no way that makes sense!
你的量化方法绝对有问题 There's no way you're marketing these swaps appropriately!
有什么理由让我们继续干 I mean, why shouldn't we back out of this trade right now?
我说没说过 咱们谈成买卖的时候 评级机构 美国证券交易委员会 Didn't I say, that when we made this deal, that the rating-agencies, the SEC
大银行们全都不懂 说没说过 and the big banks were clueless! Didn't I say that?
- 说过没有 - 有说过的 有说过的 Didn't I say it? -Yes you did, you did!
闭嘴 shut up!
他们脚都开始着火了 心里却想着牛排应该烤熟了 你还觉得奇怪 now their foot's on fire and they think their steak is done, and you're surprised?
这不是愚蠢 这是诈骗 That's not stupidity... that's fraud!
你跟我说清楚愚蠢和违法的区别 我就去把我小舅子抓起来 Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.
- 挺好笑的 - 你们还是没弄明白整个系统有多蠢 That was funny! -I guess you just don't realize how clueless the system really is!
我承认 是有一些见不得人的勾当 Yes, there's some shady shit going down!
但相信我 这是愚蠢驱使的 but trust me, it's fueled by stupidity!
看看你们这些人 Look at yourselves!
都觉得自己是敢于怀疑的人 You know you passed yourselves off as cynical people but....
可你们还对这帮青天大老爷抱有希望 You still have some faith in the system don't you?
我是不抱 I don't
文尼是明白人 Well, except for Vinnie!
谁在乎 Who gives a shit?
- 不行 - 听我说 No way! -Look!
要么我们对 要么我们错得离谱 Either we're right, or we're wrong in a giant, giant way!
如果真错了 得找高人给我们点醒才行 And if we're wrong then we gotta find someone to help us get out of this trade
我现在是一点都不觉得我们占理 I'm not feeling remotely confident that we're right
万一咱们错了 And, and... If we're wrong
谁来告诉我们 有谁懂 没人懂 Who's gonna tell us? Who understands this stuff? It makes no sense!
我们应该去拉斯维加斯 I think we need to go to Vegas!
- 那儿有什么 - 去哪儿干啥 What's in Vegas? -Vegas!
拉斯维加斯又能有什么东西 What the hell is in Las Vegas?
下周那里召开美国证券化论坛年会 The American Securitization Forum is there next week
每个证券 CDO 次级贷 倒卖交换的交易员都会去 Every bond and CDO-salesman, sub-prime lender and swap-trader is gonna be there
我这么说 I'm telling you
你挣的是他们手里的钱 Your bet is against their money,
是时候去看看人傻钱多是怎么回事了 it's about time you find out just how dumb that money really is
我真不喜欢拉斯维加斯 God no, I hate Vegas!
听说吃的东西特别好 那里也有松久寿司店了 I hear the food has gotten really good in Vegas, they have a Nobu now
你能不惦记着吃吗 could you fucking stop!
美国证券化论坛 拉斯维加斯
bgm:《The Phantom of the Opera》by Andrew Webber
汽车抵押贷款 工资日贷款
凯撒宫酒店
择一抵押公司CEO保罗·丹顿
房贷市场仍然稳健 后劲十足
证券“贵”的意思是 ... in a sense? -If the bond is "rich", it is...?
只说明证券定价过高 that just means it's overpriced
- 飞机上睡不着我就自己准备了一下 - 咱们集中精神 I can't sleep on a plane so I did my homework -OK, let's focus!
我们是为了什么来的 What's our goal?
搞清楚这买卖是千载难逢的机会 Figure out if this is a deal of a lifetime or...
还是别人比我们懂得都多 咱们回头会亏大发了 everyone knows here something we don't and we're gonna get royally screwed
和贝尔公司的人接触的时候 注意你们的目的 Right, remember that when you meet with guys from Bear!
我给你们安排见面机会 I'll set you up with a face-to-face
好的 地方在哪 Awesome, where is that?
我的天 5年前这年会还是穷鬼聚会 Holy shit! Five years ago Securitization was a loser-convention
也就有100到200人出席 a hundred, maybe two-hundred people would show
产业每年五千亿的发展之后 就变成这样了 500 billion dollars a year later you get this!
这里自带装逼表情的人还真多 There's a lot of smug-looking people in here huh!?
好像暴发户白人都跑来了 It looks like someone just hit a pinata that was filled with white people who suck at golf
- 都从哪儿冒出来的 - 别抱怨了 肯定很好玩 I mean, who are all these clown? -Ah come on, I think it looks fun!
查理 杰瑞德说咱们赚的是这些人的钱 Charlie, Vennett says these are the people we're betting against.
咱们过去 克里斯 到我左边去 别挡道 Yeah, here we go Chris on my left, Chris, on my left!
- 大家好 - 什么时候能见到你说的那些爱心天使 Gentlemen! -When do we get a chance to face-time with some of these lovely folks?
克里斯 把门卡发给他们 Chris, give em the key cards!
别弄混了 Do you even know which key-cords you're giving out?
- 先生们路上还顺利吗 - 没什么事儿 First of all, how was your travel? -Uneventful?
- 没事 - 我来了6小时了 Uneventful! -OK, I've been here for six hours!
我已经锻炼完 吃了两个荷包蛋 还和演员斯坦顿一起打牌 I've already been to the Gym, I had two poached eggs, and I played blackjack with Harry Dean Stanton
你记日记还真清楚 Thank you for your diary!
- 我想找人见面聊 - 提醒你们记住 我们是来收集信息的 Face-time! I'd like some face-time! -Just remember, we're here just to gather information!
我们是收集信息 不要打草惊蛇 We're gathering information, we're not advertising our short-position!
别吓到大伙儿 行不行 Right? We don't want to spook anybody! Can we do that?
你说话太直 还老是不停嘴 You got a big mouth, and you like to run it
- 这几天能不能收敛一点 - 好吧 好吧 Can you just keep it shut for a few days? -OK, OK!
别担心 我们会好好套话的 Yeah, don't worry, we'll play nice!
女士们先生们 Ladies and gentlemen!
商业形势大好 Business is good!
利润也很高 Profits are strong!
房贷还坚持着经济的中流砥柱作用 and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is built.
去年我们在次级贷市场有些损失 Yes, we had to take some losses in our sub-prime department last year,
不过预计也就最多损失5% But those losses, will be contained at only five percent!
接下来说 Now
我们住宅业务板块的表现 In our residential sector...
马克 这不是提问环节 Mark, it's not a Q&A!
我们推出的可调利率房贷被一抢而空 our roll out of those variable rate-packages were gobbled up by the
我有个问题 I have a question please!
先生 本来提问环节是在我陈述之后 但看你这么着急 Sir, the Q&A is after my statement, but you know what, you seem anxious!
- 现在就问吧 你好啊 - 你好 谢谢 How can I help you? -How are you? Fine, thank you!
你觉得… Would you say,
有没有这个可能性 或者说必然性 that is it a possibility, or a probability
次级贷的损失最多升到5%封顶 that sub-prime losses stop at five percent?
谢谢 Thank you!
我觉得这简直是必然的 是的 I would say it is a very strong probability, indeed!
再回到住宅部分 So, ehm, back to the residential sector,
- 我们推出可调利率… - 我还没问完 when we rolled out the new variable rates package -Excuse me!
这位先生 The ehm. Yes Sir!
零 Zero!
零 ZERO!
可能性为零 There is a zero percent chance
次级贷止损到5%的可能性为 that your sub-prime losses will stop at five percent!
零 Zero!
抱歉 Excuse me!
- 我得接这个电话了 - 你一定来自眼红我们的美国银行吧 I have to take this -He must be from Bank of America!
我现在什么都没干 No, I'm really not doing anything right now!
- 我正说到住宅部分 - 孩子们都还好吗 as I was saying, our residential sector -uh huh, and how are the kids?
客户对我们的房贷产品反响… Consumers reacted to our packages
马克真的这么做了 他来拉斯维加斯真敢这么做 Mark Baum really did that! when we were in Vegas he did that!
敢这么说 还接电话走人了 He said that... he took the call,
明白我有多费心了吗 Now you see what i had to deal with!
这UZI微冲真是爽啊 This Uzi is fucking awesome!
只要让CDO再转上两年 If I can get this CDO-machine to run for another two years
我就能富的流油 在滑雪胜地买房了 and then, I'm rich as fuck and I got my house in Aspen!
你对证券化的资产表现不担心吗 But do you have any concerns about the performance of the underlying securitizations?
违约的消息一直有 It's easy to see that delinquencies,
断供率又在增长了 eh, default-rates are on the rise right now!
你俩怎么老泼冷水 有意思吗 Could you please stop being such a buzz-kill dude!
带你们来放松 不是再来聊工作的 We didn't bring you out here to talk about work bro!
你为什么带我们过来 Why'd you bring us out here?
因为我们必须让客户给弹药买单 Because we need to be able to expense the ammo to a client!
来继续射击恐怖份子吧 你们看着点 We're gonna shoot some terrorists, watch out boys!
- 这是一群白痴 - 真是个棒槌 These guys are morons! -Fucking tool!
真他妈爽 Woo!- Fuck Yes!
爽啊 炸啊 Boom, yeah man BOOM!
- 我们所有余钱都应该买互换 - 先别急 别急 We ought to be buying every swap we can get our hands on! -Just hold on okay, hold on!
我哥哥的前女友在证券交易委员会工作 她说她也在城里 我去聊聊 My brother's ex-girlfriend works for the SEC, she just told me she's in town, okay!?
如果有些内幕消息我们不知道 她是最有可能透露给我们的人 So if we're missing something, maybe she can tell me, give me some insight.
你这边先去一楼再买点互换 In the mean-time, you go to the main floor to buy some more swaps
有个事儿 我们想要投资房贷证券 Well actually, we're about to invest in housing bonds.
我想问问证券交易委员会的态度 I was just wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all
我知道你不能透露具体内容 但你可以说说大概态度 I know you're not allowed to tell me specifics, but, just generally.
我们不去调查房产证券 Ow, we don't investigate mortgage bonds
实际上 我们预算减了以后 就不怎么调查了 Truth is, since we had our budgets cut, we don't investigate much!
- 那你开会不是来调查的吗 - 我又不是以证交会员工身份过来的 Then why are you here? I thought.. -I'm not here for the SEC!
我自己花钱来的 I'm here on my own dime
正给各大银行投简历呢 I'm floating my resume to some big banks!
你哥还好吗 How's your brother by the way?
你怎么能把简历递给大银行呢 How are you floating your resume to big banks?
你不是应该监管大银行吗 I mean, you're supposed to be the ones policing the big banks
你几岁了 杰米 Grow up Jamie!
肯定有法律规定你们不能… There must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution
马上从监管跳到被监管的地方 right after you've been working in financial regulation right?
没有 No!
没有啊 No!
嘿 Hey!
道奇 Dougie!
- 快过来 你怎么也来凯撒宫了 - 他在高盛工作 Hey, come over here! What are you doing at Caesar's? -He's a Goldman
我们应该能做5%的3B评分互换 We can do BBB-level swaps at 500 basis points, maybe!
你们互换价格这么高 好像证券要跌破价一样 You're pricing the swaps, like the bond is gonna collapse
虽然现在证券价格还在上升 你确定吗 Even though the bond-value is going up? Really?
- 这是变革的年代 - 搞不懂究竟是怎么回事啊 Exciting times! -What the hell is going on?!
刘易斯 你能明天早点儿过来吗 Lewis, Can you come early tomorrow, please?
我得减持美国国际集团 国家银行 联邦住房抵押贷款公司 I need to unload the AIG and Countrywide Freddie Mac positions
这样才能填上资金缺口 so we can afford the premiums on the
核心做空的保费还差一些 core mortgage-shorts on the swaps
没问题 贝利博士 No problem Dr. Burry
贝利博士 Dr. Burry!
要是投资者撤资 咱们接下来会怎么样 If the investors withdraw, what's gonna happen here?
我们就完了 Are we done?
我也不知道 Honestly I don't know!
证… The, the...
证券一直不下跌 the bonds aren't going down!
一动不动 They won't move!
很有可能 It's possible
整个金融系统都在欺诈 That we are in a completely fraudulent system.
或者…是你…错了 Or... you're, you're wrong.
是有可能 Sure!
有这个可能 可我找不出我错在哪里 It's possible, I just don't know how!
我估计 I guess....
别人… when...
犯了错 也不知道 someone's wrong, they never..
错在哪里吧 they never... Know how!
- 早上见吧 - 好 See you in the morning! -Yeah.
贝尔也把价格提高了 Even Bear up their prices!
管我们棕地基金叫屎洞基金 they keep calling us Brown Hole
你们没钱没名声 他们瞧不起也正常 别往心里去 you just don't have the money or the reputation, don't take it personal!
估计今晚我没心情去看脱衣舞了 喝点酒去 I don't think i have the strip-club in me tonight I'm just gonna get some drinks around.
晚上看些付费A片 订好明早的机票就行了 Watch some Pay-per-view book us some flights out for the morning.
交易…我们需要做成一笔交易 d- d- deal, we need a deal, right, a deal.
我们得做一个能承受的 并且对方肯定不会拒绝的 Uhm, we need a deal we can afford, we need a deal they're not gonna refuse!
怎么办呢… So... What can we do? We can....
2A评级的怎么样 我们压注2A评级的证券 The AA-tranches, What if we bet against the AA-tranches?
谁会拒绝这种赌注 Who's not gonna take that bet?
他们说95%都是3A级别的 We know that they say they're ninety-five percent AAA-rated
其实顶多才有25% 剩下的都是垃圾证券 But in reality, they're more like twenty-five percent, some of them are zero percent!
我们也知道如果最差评级的证券 有超过8%作废 We also know that if the bottom-tranches fail at over eight percent
就会导致最上面的证券也跟着雪崩 The upper-tranches are affected and they go to zero.
所以这些2A级别 顶多就是B级 I'll bet you right now, that those AA's are actually like B's!
我很少这么说 不过这回查理是对的 I rarely ever say these words but i think Charlie is right!
你看 本 Look, Ben!
回报率… Pay-off!
是200比1 但他们是根据现在评级来定价 is 200-to-1, but they're all taking the ratings of face value
所以低风险2A的保费很低 They're charging penny's on the dollar to bet against Double-A's
我刚开始觉得你俩是笨蛋 Just when i start thinking you guys are clowns!
地球人都不会去做空2A级别 No-one on the planet is betting against Double-A's
银行会认为我们嗑药了 或者中风了 The banks will think we're either high, or having a stroke
他们会大方接受我们的所有提议 And they'll take every dime we have to offer!
绝妙的主意 Kind of brilliant!
这个点子 只有我们想到了 This is what we did, that no-one else thought of.
连马克和麦克都没有做空2A Not even Baum or Berry thought to short the Double-A's
但我们做了 But we did.
我们这个小不点屎洞基金 Little Brown Hole Capital
我们想做空一些2A级的CDO So we're interesting in shorting some of the AA-tranches of CDO's
直说吧 你俩在打什么主意 Come on guys, what's the angle?
我们没其他意思 新手嘛 很想拿这个试手 I've got no angle, we're new to this, we're just so hyped!
我们想买1千5百万互换 做空2A级 We wanna do fifteen million in swaps on the Double-A tranche
我是搞不懂你们 I don't understand!
你俩愿意买多少就买多少 You can buy as much Double-A tranches as you want!
那就4千万做空2A吧 Forty million against the Double-A
哥们 你愿意买多少我都卖给你 Brother, I would sell you as much as you want!
我知道我在买啥 你想卖吗 I understand perfectly Bob! Want the deal?
好啊 我没问题 That's cool, that's alright with me!
他走了 He's gone!
别这样 快停下来 don't do that! Stop, Stop!
别闹了 查理 Stop that! -Charlie! Wooooh!
停下来 你俩 Stop it, Stop!
怎么了 What?
知道你们刚刚做了什么事吗 Do you have any idea what you just did?
我俩做成了一辈子一遇的买卖啊 应该庆祝 Come on, we just made the deal of our lifetime, we should celebrate!
你俩在赌未来美国经济崩溃 You just bet against the American economy!
是啊 没错 Fuck yeah we did! -Yeah!
- 这意味着 - 太棒了 Which means! Fuck yeah! OH!
这意味着 如果我们赌对了 Which means... If we're right....
如果我们是对的 人们会无家可归 If we're right, people lose homes!
大批人会失业 people lose jobs!
大家没了退休存款 养老钱都没了 People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions!
我最讨厌这行的就是这一点 人不是数字 You know what i hate about fucking banking! It reduces people to numbers!
那我告诉你 失业率上升1% Here's a number! Every one percent unemployment goes up,
死亡人数会增加4万人 明白吗 40 thousand people die! Did you know that?!
- 知不知道 - 不 我们不了解 Did you know that? -No, I didn't know that!
我们就是有点兴奋 We were just excited!
还跳舞就太过分了 Just don't fucking dance!
好吧 你要去哪 Alright! -Where are you going?
我心里有点发毛了 Whoah, I just got really scared!
今天表现挺好嘛 First of all, great show today!
简直好极了 You were terrific!
- 谢谢 - 你嘴不严实还真是我出乎意料 Thank you! -Your big mouth was a revelation!
理解万岁 I appreciate that!
你们担心有人暗箱操作 You worried you, and your swaps were getting played?
现在这个机会 让你们去看看对手是谁 Well, this is an opportunity for you to meet who you're betting against!
别觉得自己正义 就不听不进他的话 Try not to get too righteous and listen a little!
好吧 这人是谁 OK, Fine! Who is this guy?
24K级的混蛋 A real solid-gold asshole!
我是CDO经理 I'm a CDO-manager
- 还有这个职位 - 在哈丁顾问公司就有 A CDO-manager? -Yup, at Harding Advisors
我从没想过CDO还有什么要管的 I didn't realize that there was anything to manage with CDO's
不奇怪 Oh, well.
我们筛选进入CDO投资组合的证券 监控背后的资产情况 We select the securities that go into the CDO-portfolio and monitor the assets
我主要做美林证券的CDO I do most of Merrill-Lynch's CDO's
你是代表投资人还是美林 Do you represent the investors or Meryll-Lynch?
投资人啊 The investors!
是嘛 You do.
可是… Yeah! -But...
美林不可能白白送客户给你 Meryll-Lynch isn't gonna send you any customer unless you put
除非你把美林也包含进CDO Merrill-Lynch's bonds in your CDO....
问得好 Good question!
你可以假设…美林和我 Let's just assume Merrill and I have a...
我们关系不错 we have a good relationship
你和美林证券关系不错 You have a good relationship with Merrill-Lynch?
我们一起做买卖 We've been doing business together
所以你选出的CDO And so the CDO's..
这些CDO that you create
都是最高品质的 are, are, are, of the highest quality
最有价值的 and the highest of value!
- 那是当然 - 那是当然… Absolutely! -Absolutely!
你不担心正在上升的断供率吗 Are you at all concerned about the rising default-rates?
我个人不觉得CDO有风险 I assume no risk for this produce myself Mark
好吧 Okay!
那我直说吧 So let me get this straight
银行联系你 The bank calls you up
让你帮忙卖他们的证券 They give you the bonds they wanna sell
再送给你客户 给你钱让你运行公司 They give you clients, they give you money to run your business,
提成也少不了你的 Give you fat fee's for doing so
你居然还代表投资者 but you represent the investors?
你是这个逻辑吗 Is that right?
是啊 Yeah!
但我不在美林大厦里工作 But we're not in the Merrill-Lynch building!
- 那你在哪 - 我在新泽西 OK, where are you? -We're in New Jersey!
开车20分钟就到了 You're twenty minutes away!
5分钟就行了 如果你坐直升飞机 Five, if you use the helicopter!
挺好玩吧 That's funny eh?
真是好玩 That's hilarious!
不好 Oh boy!
你老板要发作了 Your boss is about to explode!
他太想搞明白了 发作不了 No, he's too curious to explode!
等等 你再解释一下 Hold on, say that again!
两个CDO A包含着B的一部分 CDO A, has parts of CDO B
然后B也包含A一部分 然后AB被放到C里面 And CDO B, has parts of CDO A and then they both get put inside CDO C.
对 这就是CDO平方 Yeah and that one is called CDO square!
CDO的CDO A CDO of a CDO!
明白 Right?
CDO还能包含你互换押注剩下的部分 And then there's CDO's made up of the opposite sides of the bet you made with the swaps
我们叫它 合成CDO We call them, synthetic CDO's
你说啥 合成CDO 真是乱套了 What did you just say? Synthetic CDO's? That is fucking crazy!
没有乱 这很赚钱 It's not! It's awesome!
他脸都气红了 像枪战游戏里的坏蛋 His face is starting to boil He looks like the bad guy from DOOM
那我们假设 Alright, let's say...
你有5千万美元的次级贷 You have a pool of 50 million in sub-prime loans
那赌在上面的钱 能有多少 How much money could be out there betting on it
在你的合成CDO和互换里 就按今晚的行情 In your synthetic CDO's and swaps? right now! Tonight!
5千万的次级贷… 50 million.. hmm..
10亿美元吧 a billion dollars
啥 What?
如果麦克最早发现的房贷证券是火柴的话 If the mortgage-bonds that Michael Burry discovered were the match...
房贷市场衍生出的证券规模有多大 How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds than for actual mortgages?
大概20倍吧 About twenty times!
如果房贷证券是火柴 If the mortgage bonds were the match...
那CDO就是煤油弄湿的破布 Then the CDO's were the kerosene soaked rags.
而合成CDO 就是原子弹 Then the synthetic CDO was the atomic bomb
启动按钮被一个酒鬼总统把持着 with a drunk president holding his finger over the button
这个时刻 在这破餐馆 It was at that moment in that dumb restaurant
马克表情像傻了一样 他头一次意识到 with that stupid look on his face that Mark Baum realized
整个世界经济可能要崩溃了 The whole world economy might collapse!
我知道你们在想什么 And i know what you're thinking!
合成CDO又是什么鬼 What the fuck is a synthetic CDO?
塞勒博士 美国经济学会主席 芝加哥大学教授 行为决策研究所所长 改变了经济学家研究人类的方式“行为经济学”之父
让行为经济学之父塞勒博士 和莎琳娜解释下 Well, here's Dr. Thaler, father of behavioral economics, and Selena Gomez to explain!
莎琳娜 国际流行乐坛巨星
合成CDO是这么回事 Ok, so here's how a synthetic CDO works!
就说我赌1千万在21点牌局的这手上 Let's say i bet ten million on a black jack hand.
1千万 大概就是一个房贷证券的规模 Ten million, because this hand is to represent a single mortgage bond
好的 莎琳娜这手牌不错 Okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here!
两张明牌18点 庄家7点 莎琳娜拿到了一手好牌 showing eighteen, dealer showing seven That's a really good hand for Selena!
赢面大 实际这手牌赢的概率 Good odds, In fact her chances of winning this hand
是87% are eighty-seven percent
就是说我很可能赢了 So, my odds are good
现在我势头正旺 I'm on a winning streak
大伙也想要趁势赚钱 Everybody in this place wants to get in on the action
我怎么会输呢 How could i lose right?
这是个经典的思维缺陷 Now this is a classic error
篮球里面叫“热手谬误” In basketball it's called the Hot-Hand-Fallacy
一个人连续投篮进了 A player makes a bunch of shots in a row
大伙会觉得下一次也会进 People are sure they're gonna make the next one
人们认为 发生过的事情 People think, whatever is happening now
在以后也会继续出现 Is gonna continue to happen into the future!
在房地产泡沫时期 During the real-estate boom
房价一直在涨啊涨 Markets were going up and up!
人们会觉得房价不可能跌下来 and people thought they would never go down!
旁观的人心想 赌边注的话 也不会输 People who are watching and think that I won't lose will make a side-bet
这就是第一个合成CDO Now this, is the first synthetic CDO
我喜欢莎琳娜 I love Selena Gomez!
我和你赌1千5百万 赌她赢 I'll bet you fifteen million, she wins!
赔率设3：1 And I'll give you 3-to-1 odds!
3：1 3-to-1 odds?
好 我和你赌 Okay, I'll take that bet!
现在 Now!
旁边还有人对他俩的赌局再对赌 somebody else is gonna wanna make a bet on the outcome of their bet!
1千五百万赌她赢 15 million she wins!
形成了第二个合成CDO That will lead to synthetic CDO number two!
我和你赌2亿 赌那个戴眼镜的女士赢 I bet you 200 million, that lady in the glasses, wins that bet!
她是赢面很大 She probably will win!
所以我很可能大赚一笔 So i want great pay-off!
我就来赔率20：1吧 How about 20-to-1?
成交 Deal!
这样的过程循环往复 合成CDO越来越多 And this will go on and on, with more and more synthetic CDO's
原始的1千万投资 And we can transform an original ten million dollar investment
滚雪球成为了几十亿的赌注 Into billions of dollars
你没事吧 You're Ok?
不舒服 No!
我感觉很恶心 I actually feel pretty sick!
我得先走了 So I'm going to leave
马克 你心里认为我就是寄生虫是吧 You think I'm a parasite don't you mister Baum?
可社会待见我这样的人 But apparently society values me,
非常待见 very much.
不信的话 咱们算算 In fact, Let's do this!
我先告诉你 I'll tell you,
我现在身价多少 how much I'm worth.
你再告诉我你身价多少 You tell me how much you're worth!
你还真是个… You are an incredibly...
浑身铜臭味的混蛋 big piece of shit!
买空他做的所有CDO 再投入5个亿 Short everything that guy has touched, I want half a billion more in swaps
你确定吗 万一不行你就破产了 Sure about that? The collateral calls could bankrupt you!
我确定 Yeah!
你要去哪儿 Where are you going?
我得去轮盘赌那里恢复一下粉碎的三观 I am going to try to find moral redemption at the roulette table
情况比我设想的还要糟 Things are worse than I thought
这次我真觉得经济要崩溃了 I honestly think the economy might collapse!
你这么说都说了几年了 You've been saying that the system is broken for years Mark
这次是怎么了 Why are you so shocked?
我再挖空心思 也想不到里面这么黑 It's more twisted, than i could have imagined!
你总是对自己有很高的道德要求 You love to be the virtuous one
我做这行 在这个染缸里 I'm a banker, I'm a part of it!
你总是这样 You always have Mark!
- 不想沾染脏东西 - 我也被改变了 我也被改变了 Like you're untainted -It changed me, it changed me!
我变成了… Into a person,
再也不能和别人交心的人 who is not able to reach out to someone
我兄弟当时很痛苦 真的很痛苦 He was in pain, my brother was in real pain!
没有十全十美的办法来帮他 There is no perfect way to help
难受就说出来 Say it, it's scary
停下来 So, Stop!
别想着拯救世界了 Trying to fix the world!
他对说我 He told me
你不是圣人 圣人不会住在公园大道的富人区里 You're not a saint, saints don't live on Park Avenue!
那时他就有不好的想法 That he was having bad thoughts.
你得去接受自己的喜怒哀乐 像我们普通人一样 Just feel the feelings, like the rest of us!
我当初怎么帮他的… My first response...
第一反应是给他钱 Was, to offer him some money.
我他妈的只会给钱 I offered him fucking money!
他最后脸都摔烂了 His face was so smashed!
bgm:《By Demons Be Driven》by Pantera
麦克 Michael?
- 麦克 - 我在 Michael? -Yes, Yes!
- 你没事吧 - 没事 亲爱的 Is everything Ok? -Yes honey!
真的 Sure?
宝贝放心吧 Yeah baby!
没事了 All fine, hehe!
至所有的投资人 你们也知道 To all investors, as you may know,
我们的协议允许我 在市场运行脱轨的时候 Our agreement allows me, to take extraordinary measures
采取极端的措施 When markets aren't functioning properly
我现在有理由相信 I currently have reason to believe
房贷证券市场是个骗局 The mortgage-bond market is fraudulent
为了保护各位的投资不受扭曲市场的影响 So, in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market
我决定禁止投资者撤资 I've decided to restrict investor withdrawals
后续情况请等待通知 Until further notice.
真诚的 麦克·贝利博士 Sincerely, Dr. Michael J. Burry
我要起诉你
Facebook壮大
2007年4月16日 弗吉尼亚理工大学校园枪击案
其实 人人都在内心深处
企盼世界末日的到来
村上春树《1Q48》
天哪 伙计 你能不能… Oh my god dude, would you...
别老是换频道了 Please stop changing the channel
- 要把我逼疯了 - 好吧 It's been driving me crazy! -Fine!
就放商业新闻好了 谢谢 Just put the business-news on please. Thank you!
标准普尔指数提升3点 And the S&P picked up three points
小题大做
2007年4月2日
房贷市场崩溃还在继续 Mortgage Meltdown continues
曾经是领军企业 发放次级贷的 sub-prime mortgage-lender New Century Financial
新世纪金融公司申请破产 Once the industry-leader by the way, filed for bankruptcy
该公司马上… The company immediately, Ahem!
我清一下嗓子 good time for my voice to go
（CNN 新世纪金融公司破产）
…裁员了3200人 Fired 3,200 workers
与三月相比 制造业指数仍在下滑 The manufacturing-index also fell off the month of march
开始了… It's starting....
有专家提醒 经济增长可能会放缓 A warning that the economic growth could slow
相关机构声称 次级贷资产价格仍在上涨 The institute of sub-prime assets also reported a rise of prices
我必须打电话给我妈了 I'm gonna call my mom!
经济放缓的主要原因
每次我都帮你挡着 马克 Time, and time, and time again I've brought you back, Mark
我们认识都17年了 We've know each-other for seventeen years
她嗓门这么大 真是厉害 She 's got some lungs on her I'm impressed!
看她生气我还挺高兴 Can't help but enjoy it.
绝对不可能 大银行哪有这么蠢 There's no fucking way, there's no fucking way, that the big banks are that stupid!
再见 凯茜 Bye Kathy!
怎么说 Well?
凯茜说 我们应该卖掉做空的互换 Kathy thinks it would be a good idea if we sold our shorts
老话重提 What else is new?
她说摩根士丹利会买下来 And she said that Morgan-Stanley will buy them
我操 Holy shit!
你怎么说 What did you say?
我告诉她 我们啥都不卖 I told her we're not selling shit!
贝尔斯登清算了两家对冲基金 近期因次级贷损失惨重
如果你需要2005年资料的话… Ah, if you need the.. ehm, Files from 2005
菲尔德先生的诉讼 只需要去年到现在的资料 Mister Field's suit is very specific to files from the past year
那出去吧 代我向劳伦斯问好 向他俩都问好 Good, then get out! Say hi to Lawrence for me! and both do!
你一个礼拜都不能回我电话 You can't call me back for a week?
我很抱歉 麦克 I'm so sorry Mike!
高盛的系统崩溃 我把很多消息都丢了 Goldman had a systems failure i lost a ton of messages!
美国银行说他们停电了 摩根士丹利说服务器崩溃了 B of A said they had a power outage, And Morgan-Stanley said their server crashed!
这么凑巧 That's weird!
我觉得不太可能 Meh, I will, I will call it, improbable
那你记录我们的资金量是多少 Where do you have our position marked?
和以前一样 麦克 I think it's the same Mike
什么 你能给我解释一下吗 What? Can you explain that to me please?
被保的东西都毁灭了还不能用保险 H-H-H How can the value of an insurance-contract
那一个保险合同还叫什么保险合同 Not be affected by the demise of the very thing it insures?
他们是独立的市场 两者并不总是相关 They're independent markets, They're not always correlated!
我知道听起来奇怪 但是它们都是十分复杂的金融产品 I know it sounds odd, but these are very complicated products!
它们本来就是相关的 They ARE correlated!
人们会没了房子 丢了工作 养老金… They're gonna lose their houses, They're gonna lose their jobs, They're gonna lose their p..
发件人:贝尔斯登 报价和上次一样
你好好听我说 Will you listen to me!
这次…就像资本主义终结一样严重 This is like.... The end of capitalism!
再次回到黑暗时代 This is like the dark ages all-over again!
我不想和我爸说话 我也爱你 把你们的钱保护好 I don't want to talk to dad! Okay, I love you too, save your money!
她说我得去开治抑郁的药 抗焦虑的药要加倍 She says I need to be on Xanax, and double my dose of Zoloft
我问贝尔斯登买我们做空的报价 他们说CDO价格还是没变 I asked Bear-Stearns to price our shorts They tell me the CDO's still haven't moved
这帮人真是丧心病狂了 This is fucking insane!
这帮合伙骗子 应该进监狱 You realize that? These people are crooks and they should be in prison!
看看资产担保证券指数 CDO的价值已经是零了 Look at the ABX, you can see that the CDO's are worth zero!
所以你知道他们想干啥? So you know what they're doing,huh? -Yeah!
- 你知道他们想干啥 对吗? - 没错 - You know what they're doing right? -Yeah!
他们之所以不买 They're not loading them...
是因为要卖出去自己的狗屎CDO They're selling their dogshit CDO's
然后才能去另一家银行 Then they go to another bank
- 做空自己的狗屎 再吃进去 - 天哪 咱们可以去找媒体了 And short the shit, while they fucking sold it! -Whoo ho ho, Let's go to the press man!
这绝对是轰动新闻 谁会不愿意登 This is a massive story! Who wouldn't publish it?
罗伯特·雷德福那样的 Robert Redford!
（其在《总统班底》中演的记者在巨大压力下查出了水门事件真相）
- …再做空自己买下的 - 我明白了 我明白了 shorting the ones they buy -I got it, I got it!
我明白了 I got it, I got it...
华尔街日报 纽约美洲大道1211号
我又能做什么 And what am I supposed to do?
华尔街日报 纽约美洲大道1211号
难道写一篇报道 题目就叫“我们都完蛋了” Want me to write a piece called: "We're all fucked!"
好啊 完美的题目 Yes! That's a perfect title!
现在所有的银行都在转手这些垃圾证券 Right now, every bank in town is unloading these shit-bonds
让那些不了解内情的人买单 under un-suspecting customers
他们在卖出去之前是不会主动降价的 and they won't devalue them until they get them off their books
这种犯罪程度在华尔街也是史无前例 This level of criminality is unprecedented even on fucking Wall-street!
杰米 Jamie...
我就坦诚的和你说吧 This is me being honest here okay.
我在华尔街建立关系网花了好几年 It took me years to build my relationships on Wall-street
没有银行或者评级机构… No bank or ratings-agency
会傻到主动承认你俩所说的 Is gonna confirm a story like this
你俩的基金开在车库 just because it comes from two guys in a...
吵吵着世界末日就要来了 谁信 garage-band hedge-fund that thinks it's the apocalypse.
我还以为你是良心记者 真的 我一直都这么想 I thought you were for real Kathy You know, I have to say, I really did!
杰米 你和我讲良心 我现在小孩3岁 Yeah Jamie, you try being for real with a three-year old
老婆也要交学费读硕士 and a wife getting her masters-degree
我不会因为你们瞎猜就把自己的名誉赔进去 I'm not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch
麻烦你俩跑一趟了 见到你们真他妈开心 Thanks for coming guys, totally fucking awesome to see you!
我们也是 之前我就对你不爽 Yeah. I, Kathy I, I, I've always hated you
在大学里面你就这臭屁样儿 到现在了还是没改 Because you were a prick in college and you are a prick today!
谢谢评价 那你还在和你妈一起住吗 Thanks Charlie! Still living with your mom?
查理 咱们走 Charlie, Come on!
我是马克·鲍姆 给我回电话 It's Mark Baum again. Call me!
次级贷证券大跳水 Sub-prime bonds fell off a cliff
传闻有大批房贷断供 Rumor has it default-numbers are huge!
谁先拿到汇款数据了 估计是高盛 Who got the remittance data early? I bet it's Goldman
真是帮倒忙 Nah, Fuck you very much!
杰瑞德 我这儿一团乱麻 咱们情况怎么样 Jared! It's chaos down here, where are we?
“他哭泣了 再也没能让我征服的地方了” （亚历山大大帝名言） he wept for there are no more worlds to conquer
夏恩… Shane...
夏恩 Shane!
情况是 Well...
没人买CDO和房贷证券了 Nobody's buying CDO's and mortgage bonds anymore
人人都要买互换 这是华尔街现在最抢手的东西 And everybody wants swaps, swaps are now the most popular product on the street
- 对我们是好消息吧 - 是也不是 That's good for us! -Yes, and no.
我听别人说…对方也从别处听说… I heard from somebody, who heard from somebody
不行 亚历克斯 这里我占了 No Alex. No..... Sorry!
我听说摩根的本尼在证券部门损失惨重 Bennie Kreeger over at Morgan is taking up some heavy losses in the bond-department
国家银行因艰难处境发出金融预警
你所在的大船可能漏水了 Your shit might be taking on water
赶紧穿上救生衣跳船吧 Time to get our life-jacket and get out.
我的天 holy shit!
我就操了 I'm jacked
我就操啊 I'm Jacked!
操得好爽 I'm jacked to the tits!
很好 Good!
- 能体会到痛苦又兴奋的感觉吗 - 我可不想 Do you feel it? -No!
你听到什么了泰德 What'd you hear Ted?
开始了 It's happening
大伙都要买我们的互换 Everybody wants our swaps
凯茜让你去她办公室 Kathy's office is looking for you!
黑脸的又变白脸了 Singing a different tune now, aren't they?
情况不妙啊 That's not good.
以后再说吧 Maybe later.
- 我没开玩笑 - 你得开始脱身了 No, no this isn't a joke -you gotta start unwinding...
高盛来电
我听着呢 Listening!
- 贝利博士 - 是我 Dr. Burry? -Yah!
我是高盛的迪伯·温斯顿 Deeb Winston, Goldman Sachs
我看了一下你的价位 Listen, I've been reviewing your position
想要和你讨论估值的情况 尽可能的公平 I wanted to discuss your marks, make sure they're fair!
我想…你的意思是 Yeah, I, I, I thi, I think you mean.. That you've..
你已经做空了自己的仓位 这样你总算能认真评估我的互换了 secured a net-short position yourselves, so you're free to mark my swaps accurately for once
现在对你们也有利 Because it's now in your interest to do so.
我…我不知道你要我怎么说 Ehm... I'm not sure what you want me to say
我想… I think that....
你该说的都说了 I think you've already said it.
你告诉高盛的杰夫 我绝对不会转移基金 太扯淡了 You tell Jeff at Goldman that I'm not transferring funds, this is bullshit!
回头再说 Okay, we'll talk later.
谢谢… thank you...
谢谢你这么快就过来了 Thanks for coming so quickly Mark -Yeah
我知道你听说了摩根有一些损失 I know you've been hearing rumblings about some losses Morgan has suffered.
- 恭喜你 - 恭喜什么 -Congratulations On what?
噢 Oh!
吸奶器 凯茜已经怀孕了
谢谢 Thanks.
感觉挺好的吧 Ehm.. -Having fun?
还行 Yes! He he!
是感觉不错 Tons!, Ehm....
我想告诉你 I just wanted you to know that ehm...
摩根是遭受了一些损失 但我们的流动资产还是很稳健 Yes, Morgan has suffered some losses, but our liquidity is strong,
不需要再担心什么了 And there's no cause for concern!
那需要担心本尼吗 Would Bennie Kreeger be concerned?
听人说他损失惨重 Because word on the street is he took some pretty heavy losses
凯茜 别遮掩了 咱们都认识多少年了… Kathy come on, we know each-other.. What's going on?
说吧…情况有多严重 How..how..how bad is this?
好吧 Ok...
在两年以前 摩根证券部门的克里格 也开始做空次级贷 Two years ago, Bennie Kreeger in Morgan's bond-department also started shorting sub-prime housing
- 20亿做空3B级 - 本尼比我想的还要聪明啊 Two billion in Triple-B's -Benny is smarter than i thought!
不 他一点也不聪明 No, he's not smart at all!
交的保费搭进去了其他利润 The premiums on the swaps ate into his desks profit
为了保住3B的做空 To cover his Triple-B shorts,
他卖了很多的A和2A的交换做保护 很多 He sold a lot of A- and Double-A swaps as protection, A lot!
他觉得 不可能A级的也会受影响 He believed that there was no way, that they could be affected.
你该不会说是摩根士丹利卖给我们交换的吧 Tell me Morgan-Stanley doesn't hold the contracts on these swaps
我的天 Holy shit
我一直都在找我们的对家是谁 All this time I've been trying to figure out whom I've been betting against.
没想到是我们的母公司 And it's Morgan-Stanley
遭殃的是自己的公司 Which is me....
风险敞口有多少 30亿 What's your exposure? Three billion?
不可能超过40亿吧 Please don't tell me it's more than four!
我不能回答你这问题 I can't answer that!
你可以说… Yes you can answer that, because...
我过来的时候 看到走廊上的人都在哭 I walk in here and people are crying in your hallway
凯茜 Kathy..
你跟我说什么事儿都好 可什么事儿现在都不好 You bring me in to tell me everything is fine, and everything is not fine!
究竟现在是怎么了 What? What is happening?
做多的敞口有… Long exposure is...
150亿 fifteen billion
- 我的老天爷 你在开玩笑吧 - 你总是说断供率不可能超过8%的 Jesus Christ, are you fucking kidding me?! -You kept saying defaults over eight percent were impossible!
- 那样会有1百万人无家可归 - 我的天 -That there would be a million homeless Oh my god!
摩根和我们没有关系 Yeah, but we have nothing to do with Morgan-Stanley
那你上破产法庭这么说去 Yeah... Just tell the bankruptcy-court
摩根破产 我们所有的钱都会转到 他们的资产负债表上 Morgan fails, all our accounts go on their balance sheet
这也太疯狂了 That's just crazy!
摩根输了烂赌注 却让我们来还账 Morgan makes a sucker's bet and we pay their fucking gambling debt?
- 做空摩根的股票 Short the bank's stocks! -Wait..
或者等市场一开始交易 就卖了我们的互换 Or we sell our swaps, when the market opens
我们拿到奖金 我们的投资人拿到收益 We get our bonuses, our investors get their profit
咱们能拿到一块钱里的三毛钱 至少能保命 We get... thirty cents on the dollar, Not bad!
我们比这值3倍 We're three times that
要是买家市场都没了 就烂到手里了 Not if there's no market up to sell them in
不行 我不能把救生船送给这些人 Forget it, I'm not giving any lifeboats
马克 如果摩根垮了 到头来我们什么都没有了 Mark, if Morgan goes under, we end up with nothing!
文尼 Vinnie...
别争了 Jesus, come on!
我说卖 咱们再卖 I say, when we sell
我知道你跟华尔街有私人恩怨 Look I get that this is personal for you,
- 但是我们对投资人也要负责 - 我们不需要负责 But we have a fiduciary responsibility -No, no we don't!
我们负责 这里谁给别人负责 Respons..? Nobody is acting responsible!
操他妈的责任 跟我谈负责 Fuck responsibility! Are you kidding me?
大银行的那些混蛋们 回头能… The assholes at the big banks, are gonna take..
- 你们点菜吗 - 我们在说正经事…别打扰 You boys want menu's now? -We're talking!.. Please!
抱歉了 Excuse us!
我们要等着 耐心等着 We are going to wait, and we are going to wait
等到他们知道疼了 开始流血了才行 We are going to wait, until they feel the pain, until they start to bleed
这才是我想要的结果 That is what I want
那我们的客户怎么办 我们在拿他们的钱冒风险 Yeah, but what about our clients, they've been trusting us with their savings.
我说卖 我们再出手 I say when we sell!
这不是你公报私仇的时候 This isn't about you!
我说卖 再出手 Hey, hey, HEY! I say when we sell!
好吧 那听你的 Whatever you say Mark
伙计你看新闻了吗 Dude, did you hear the news?
两个贝尔投资的房贷对冲基金爆仓了 Ok, so not only did two mortgage hedge-funds backed by Bear-Stearns go belly-up
而且现在贝尔还被集体诉讼 but now, there's a class-action lawsuit against Bear
坏了 Holy shit!
跟我做 用力 用力 Let's go! Push, Push!
- 那怎么了 贝尔会破产吗 - 我们不能冒这个险 So? What? Bear could really collapse here? -That's a risk we really shouldn't take!
我们有80%的互换 是从贝尔那里买的 But eighty percent of our swaps is Bear
我们可能陪个精光 We lose everything!
- 先生 - 马上就好 Hey Sir! -One second!
- 这是我的看法 - 我们买了这东西 却不知道怎么卖 That's my opinion! -Aw, we bought these fucking things, and we have no clue how to sell them
是啊 所以我们得找本帮忙 I know, we have to get Ben to do it!
我一直给他打电话 他也不回 I've been trying to call him, but he won't get back to me
现在他和老婆一家人在度假 在英国 No, he's on vacation with his wife's family! They're in England!
什么 What?!
黑马酒吧 英国南部港口艾克斯茅斯
本：现在出手还太早
本 你能听清吗 Hello, Ben? Hey!
- 你们好 - 我们在 你能听清吗 Guys? -Yeah, we're here, can you hear us?
我听的清楚 Guys?- We hear ya, Yeah!
我这里电话和网络信号都不好 I probably got cell-phone and WiFi-service
居然要这样卖掉2亿的证券 I'm trying to sell 200 million dollars worth of securities
就在这酒吧 In a pub...
闻着绵羊味儿 smells like sheep
你能行的 You can do this!
我不想给你压力 但你搞不定的话 我们就全赔光了 I don't want to pressure you Ben, but if you don't pull this off, we lose everything!
看看瑞士瑞信银行的胃口如何 Ok, let's see what Credit Suisse's appetite is.
我是棕地基金 我想要抛售我的信用违约互换 This is Brownfield Fund, I'm wanting to unload my credit default swaps.
好的 你们有多少 Alright, what've you got?
大概有20个2A级别的CDO Twenty Double-A tranches of CDO's
好吧…这些现在行情不太好 Eh yes.. but these eh... these are pretty bad
是啊 全是垃圾 Absolutely, they're complete shit!
- 你的… - 面值是2亿5百万 What's your.. what's your? - Face-value is 205 million
美元 Dollars
那我们能…以40收购 Alright, we could, we could go to forty
不行 至少要1亿 No, we want at least a hundred million
1个亿 A hundred million?
你是毒品贩子 还是搞银行的 Who are you a drug-dealer or a banker?
你要是银行家 就立马给我滚蛋 Cause if you're a banker you can fuck right off!
我不知道能不能坐庄 直接说你的最好报价 I don't know if we can make a market, just give me your best price!
哎呦 1个亿还嫌不够 Yeah, Check! a hundred million worth, and aim higher!
我觉得我们期望差太多 I think we're far apart
你要是不想买 就直接挂断 Look if you don't want to deal, just hang up.
跟我料想的一样 That's what I thought!
9千万 Ninety million
7千万 Seventy!
8千5百万 Eighty-five
- 7千8百万 - 8千4百万 Seventy-eight -Eighty-four!
我是贝利博士 It's Dr. Burry
看来金融危机马上来了 （全国断供率超过12%） Looks like the collapse of the financial sector is imminent
我以现在的仓位出手 Start to sell my position
23亿 2.3 billion
当然 我可以等着 Sure, I'll hold!
亲爱的劳伦斯
你在赛恩资本的总盈利为4.89亿
已经转存到你的账户了
不用谢
德意志银行纽约分行, 4千7百万
最终我还是对的 So I was right.
我被人喷了两年… I took a rash of shit for two years. But...
但是我是对的 I was right! And...
所有人都错了 Everyone was wrong!
我还拿到了奖金支票 And yeah i got a bonus-cheque for it
来告我啊 Sue me!
随便了 You know.
这钱是不少 我能感到你们心里有看法 It's a lot of money! I get it, I can feel you judging me.
很明显嘛 That's palpable
可是呢 But hey!
我从没说过我是这个故事里的英雄人物 I never said I was the hero of this story
你好啊 Hey, hey babe!
情况怎么样 How are we looking?
…八…万 ...ace... goi..
什么 S-Sorry?
- 是8千万 - 8千万成交了 No, eighty million! -Ok, so eighty million!
8千万 8千万 这挺好的是吧 Eighty million, eigthy million, that's good right?
8千万很好 谢谢你 非常感谢 Eighty is great, eighty is great, thank you, thank you so much!
钱都汇到瑞士联合银行了 Most of them went to UBS
你们运气相当不错 You're very lucky!
今天法国把国内最大的货币市场账户冻结了 The largest bank in France froze it's customer's money-market accounts today
风暴已经传到欧洲了 This thing is hitting Europe!
希腊和爱尔兰已经完了 Greece and Iceland are finished
西班牙正在遭殃 Spain is teetering
真的假的 这么严重 Are you serious? Fuck!
本 等你回家给我们打电话 Ben call us when you get home!
不过放电话之前请等一下 But hey, before you go... I'm just wondering...
我一直想问… Uhm..
你为什么要和我们做这件事 Why did you do this with us?
你并不需要…当然我们很感谢你…但 You didn't have to, and eh.. you know, thank you, but, eh....
为什么 Why?
你们说想要发财 现在你们有钱了 You guys said you wanted to get rich! -Now you're rich!
2008年3月14日
房产和银行还在持续出血 只有一家大单做空的还拒绝出售 As the housing-markets and banks continues to hemorrhage, only one of the big shorts refused to sell.
马克·鲍姆的空头（演讲人 格林·斯潘）
这简直比咱们导演的还要好 他在会议上和布鲁斯·米勒同台讨论 So it was beyond perfect, when he was asked to speak at a conference opposite Bruce Miller
著名的乐观投资人 Famous bullish investor
他和马克辩论以后 After he and Mark had their debate
格林斯潘 整个金融危机的总设计师 还要继续讲话 Alan Greenspan, one of the architects of the whole crisis, was scheduled to speak
马克办公室的人都来了 把朋友也邀请过来了 Everyone in Mark's office showed up, even invited friends!
这就像金融界的阿里和福尔曼的拳击世纪对决 This... was the Ali versus Foreman of the financial world
现实主义者对战傻瓜 Realists versus the fools
在我们以为事情不可能更完美的时候 你敢相信… And if it seems almost too perfect... trust me!
这事儿发生了 This happened!
欢迎大家的光临 Welcome everyone!
贝尔股价 47
请让我们热烈欢迎 Please... Give a generous welcome to...
布鲁斯·米勒和马克·鲍姆 Mister Bruce Miller.... and Mark Baum
系好安全带看戏了 Strap yourself in!
你们有些人可能知道 贝尔斯登刚刚接受了一笔摩根的贷款 So as some of you may know, Bear-Stearns has just received a loan from J.P. Morgan
当然我们等些时间才能看到市场的反馈 Of course we gonna have to wait to see how the markets react
但这事本身就能打消对贝尔银行的担心了 But that should lay to rest any concerns about the bank self!
我理解 所以你本人不会出售你的2亿股票了 No, I take it, you have no plans to sell your two-hundred million in Bear stock
当然不 实际上等我们聊完 我还要再买进更多 No, as a matter of fact, when we're done here, I'll probably go buy some more!
而对立观点…马克·鲍姆 For the opposing view... Mister Baum
我得站起来说 I gotta stand for this
好的 大家好 Okay, Hi!
我们公司投资理念很简单 My firm's thesis is pretty simple
华尔街把最初刘易斯房贷证券的好点子 Wall-street took a good idea: Lewis Raneiri's mortgage-bonds
变成了一个欺诈和愚蠢做成的原子弹 And turned it into an atomic bomb of fraud and stupidity
现在原子弹马上就要毁灭全球经济了 That's on it's way to decimating the world economy
你说的还挺像那么回事似的 How do you really feel?
我没想到你现在还能笑的出来 我要是你的话可不这么乐观 I'm glad you still have a sense of humor! I wouldn't if I were you!
认识我的人都知道 Now, Anyone who knows me, knows..
我是对别人的错误直言不讳的 That I have no problem telling someone they're wrong.
2008年3月14, 贝尔股票41点 39点
你快看 股价还在往下泄 It's a disaster, it just says here
- 但这一辈子 我是头一次… - 我的天 But for the first time.. in my life.. -Holy fuck!
…真心笑不出来 It's not so enjoyable
现在的美国充斥着欺诈 We live in an era of fraud in America
不仅是银行 连政府也参与其中 Not just in banking, but in government
教育 宗教 Education, religion
视频 连棒球都作假 Food, even baseball
真正让我担心的 What bothers me...
并不是说欺诈不道德 Isn't that .. fraud is not nice
也不是说欺诈很邪恶 Or that fraud... is mean
而是说 在过去一万五千年的历史中 It's that .. for fifteen thousand years
欺诈和短视就从来没有成功过 Fraud and short-sighted thinking have never ever worked
贝尔股价 37
- 一次都没有 - 天哪 Not once, eventually -Jesus
- 总会失败 - 已经降到37了 You'll get caught -We're at thirty-seven
- 行情要下跌了 - 这哪是下跌 这是暴跌 Things go south! -It's fucking plummeting man, it's fucking plummeting!
我们难道都忘记教训了吗 When the hell did we forget all that?
我还以为我们有希望 真的这么以为过 I thought we were better than this, I really did
还有 And..
虽然我们不够明智 但是我也不觉得自己多么正义 多么骄傲 The fact that we're not, doesn't make me feel all-right and superior!
我只是为大家感到…深深的悲哀 It makes me feel... Sad.
- 我每次刷新 股价都在掉 - 垮掉算了 Everytime i fucking hit refresh it's dropping man -And hope it does goes down!
贝尔股价 35
看笑话的心情… And as fun as it is to watch..
看这些自大愚蠢的华尔街人士大错特错 Pompous dumb Wall-streeters be wildly wrong
您也一样 大错特错 And you are wrong sir!
我只知道 最后… I just know that at the end of the day
将是普通百姓来承受这些痛苦 Average people are going to be the ones, that are going to have to pay for all of this.
- 兴亡总是百姓遭殃 - 32点 Because they always, always do! -Thirty-two?
- 真是32点 - 这是跌破的节奏 Shit! It's thirty-two -Yeah it's fucking tanked man
这是我的拙见 谢谢大家 That's my two cents, thank you!
我得去德意志银行去看热闹 I'm gonna drop a deuce at Deutsche
我们的乐观派有什么回应吗 Does our bull have a response?
在华尔街的整个历史上 Only that in the entire history of Wall-street,
从没有投资银行失败 除非因为犯罪被牵连 No investment-bank has ever failed, unless caught in criminal activities.
我的回应是坚持 我认为贝尔前景光明 So, yes! I stand by my Bear-Stearns optimism.
米勒先生 打扰了 一个小问题 Mister Miller, I'm sorry! quick question!
刚才你们正在谈话的时候 贝尔的股票已经跌落了38% From the time you guys started talking, Bear-Stearns' stock is falling more than thirty-eight percent
你还要再买入吗 Would you still buy more?
当然 Yeah, sure!
我当然要买入 为什么不买 Of course i'd buy more, why not?
当场打脸 Boom!
- 天哪 - 糟了 - 我们第一部分的讨论就结束了 Jesus Christ! - Oh no! That concludes the first part of our presentation
下面我们有请 传奇的前美联储主席 格林斯潘 Up next, we have the legendary, former, chairman of the FED, Alan Greenspan!
大伙 Folks!
贝尔斯登和国家银行先后破产 现在轮到雷曼兄弟了
- …雷曼兄弟的员工… - 华尔街的大公司股票跌到零 ... employees of Lehmann Brothers today, -as the Wall-street giant's stock went to zero!
纽约银行的形象毁于一旦 the collapse of the venerable New York Bank
之后将是几个月的市场动荡 Follows a tumultuous few months of market volatility
2008年9月15日
我们担心世界经济… and fear for the world economy...
我得去里面看看 I gotta see inside
怎么进去 How?
来吧 Come on
我电话忘到办公室了 门卡也扔了 I left my phone in the office, I threw my pass out already,
- 能用你的吗 - 爱用就用 我才不管 Do you mind if i take your pass? Borrow it? I don't give a shit anymore, you can do what you want!
雷曼兄弟
- 直接上班车 别对媒体说话 - 18年了 我就落了这么个结果 Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press! -So that's it? After eighteen years!
还赶我走 我愿意怎么干就怎么干 Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press! -I just leave? That's just fucking great, I can talk to whomever the hell I want!
别对媒体说话 Do not talk to the press!
直接上班车 别对… Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the
晚上想一起吃个饭吗 Hey look, you want to get a bit tonight? There's this ehm...
下东城那边开了古巴餐馆 可以去… This new Cuban place just opened at the Lower East Side, so I suppose we could..
- 是吗 - 是啊 Ah really? -Yeah!
咱们俩 You and I?
- 也带上大伙吧 - 好主意 Yeah and eh.. other people -That sounds nice!
- 我很想去 谢谢你邀请我 - 总算打电话了 Yeah, I would like that, thank you very much! -Finally!
马克 Mark, Hey!
这里已经血流成河了 It's a bloodbath up here
摩根股票贬值一半 跌到23 10 Morgan's stock has lost half its value, it's down to 23,10
这是跌破的趋势 我想和你谈谈脱身的事 It's in a free-fall decline, so I wanted to talk to you about pulling their money
现在不把钱撤出来就没机会了 I mean... It's now or never Mark!
我们要出手了 We gotta sell!
马克 Mark!
马克 你听到了吗 Mark, do you hear me?
语音信箱1 您有15条留言 Mailbox #1, You have fifteen messages.
麦克我联系不上你 你能方便的时候尽快回电话吗 Mike I can't seem to get a hold of you, could you please call me at your earliest convenience?
我是杰夫 你现在还要买股票 It's Jeff, I.. eh.. You're buying stocks?
现在是股市最低点 你太离谱了 The market is at an all-time low, this is crazy!
我和我妻子是在网上认识的 I met my wife on Match.com
我的交友资料说我是个医学院学生 只有一只眼能用 My profile said that I'm a medical student with only one eye
不懂社交 An awkward social manner,
助学贷款还有14.5万要还 and 145 thousand dollars in student loans
她的回信是 She wrote back...
我找的就是你这样的 You're just what I've been looking for!
她的意思是我很坦诚 那我也对你们开诚布公 She meant honest, so let me be honest...
房地产危机是金融史上最大的机会 The housing-crisis represents the greatest financial opportunity
但赚钱并不像我想象的那样简单 Making money is not like i thought it would be.
做交易…杀死了生命中对我最重要的那部分 这部分和做交易无关 This business... Kills the part of life that is essential! The part, that has nothing to do with business
在过去两年 我内心感觉到 黑暗的东西在自我吞噬 For the past two years, my insides have felt, like they're eating themselves.
我曾经尊敬过的人 All the people I respected,
现在再也不理我了 won't talk to me anymore
除了通过律师来找我 Except through lawyers.
人们… People...
总希望有权威来告诉他们如何来选择价值 但他们选择权威 Want an authority to tell them how to value things, but they chose this authority
并不是基于事实情况 或者成就 not based on facts or... results
他们这样选 只是因为这些人看起来很权威 说出了他们想听的话 They chose it because it seems authoritative...and familiar!
可是… And...
我从未盲从过大众 I'm not, and never have been.... familiar
所以… So..
我得到了严肃的结论 我必须关闭基金 So I've come to the solemn realization that I must close down the fund
真诚的 麦克·贝利博士 Sincerely, Michael J. Burry MD.
盈利489% 赛恩净值
总盈利 26.9亿
这和我想象的不一样 This isn't how I pictured it
- 你以为是什么样的 - 反正不是这样 What do you think you'd find? -I don't know
人人都做个成年人 Grown-ups
马克 你听着吗 Mark, are you there?
马克 Mark?
财政部长和美联储主席刚刚离开白宫 Paulson and Bernanke just left the White House.
可能政府要出手了 There's going to be a bail-out
不出手不行啊 Well, they had to!
是吧 Right?
- 我们用担保兑付房贷 - 这些人早就知道 We paid for mortgages with collaterals -They knew!
ATM机回头会取不出钱来的 他们必须阻止这种情况发生 Cash would have stopped coming out the ATM, they had to back-stop this
这些银行家知道政府会用纳税人的钱保他们 他们不是愚蠢 他们只是不在乎 They knew the tax-payers would bail them out, they weren't stupid, they just didn't care!
是啊 他妈的一帮骗子 Yeah, 'cause they're fucking crooks!
但是走着瞧吧 肯定会有人进监狱的 But, at lest we're gonna see some of them go to jail.
是吧 Right?
大银行会被拆分 We need to gonna have to break up the banks
- 不可能再为所欲为 - 我不知道 我不知道 The party is over! -I don't know, I don't know...
我总觉得 几年之内 人们还是会和以前经济危机一样 I have a feeling, that in a few years, people are gonna doing, what they always do when the economy tanks.
责怪移民和穷人拖累了他们 They will be blaming immigrants and poor people.
但是马克错了 But Mark was wrong!
接下来的几年 几百个银行和评级高管进了监狱 In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers and rating-agency's executives went to jail.
证券交易委员会被政府彻查 The SEC was completely overhauled
议会也迫于压力不得不拆分大银行 and congress had no choice, but to break up the big banks
进一步规范房贷和金融衍生品市场 and regulate the mortgage and derivative industries
上面开玩笑啦 Just kidding!
银行把人们投资的钱拿走 Banks took the money the American people gave them
用来给他们自己开巨额奖金 and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
然后贿赂议会 来驳回激进的改革 and lobby the congress to kill big reform
然后再把锅甩到移民和穷鬼身上 and then they blamed immigrants and poor people
这次 连教师也跟着被指责 and this time even teachers!
这些都说完做完以后 只有一个银行家被关了监狱 And when all was said and done, only one single banker went to jail
这个倒霉蛋 This poor schmuck!
瑞士瑞信银行的卡里姆 Kareem Serageldin from Credit Suisse
他在房贷证券中损失了几十亿 He hit a few billion in mortgage-bond losses
但对金融危机的大银行来说 这些损失都是平常事儿 Something most of the big banks did on a good day during the crisis
马克 我们能出手了吗 Mark, can we sell now?
现在基金能回收10亿 I mean the fund will almost make a billion dollars
你能清算出2亿来 You'll clear two-hundred mill Mark!
可是…如果我们出手 You know... once we sell..
最终和他们又有什么不一样 We'll be just like the rest of them
你知道我的意思 You know that!
不一样 我们不是坏人 No we're not, we're not the bad guys here!
我们没有利用美国人 想要有个房子的梦想来诈骗 we didn't defraud the American people and prey on their dreams of owning a home
像他们那样 Like they did!
现在出手能打得他们找牙 Now we get to kick em in the teeth!
10亿美元 a billion dollars
是的 That's right!
但是我们必须尽快平仓 否则可能拿不回钱了 But we gotta close out our position, or it could be zero
机不可失 时不再来 马克 I- I- It's now or never, Mark
好吧 Okay.
全卖出去 Sell it all!
等金融动荡尘埃落定
总共有5万亿美元消失不见 包括养老金 房地产
401K退休福利 存款和证券
8百万人失业 6百万人无家可归
这还只是美国的情况
马克·鲍姆的妻子 辛西娅说
马克在金融危机之后变得谦和了
再也不对人说“我早就告诉过你”了
他的手下丹尼 文尼和伯特…
还在曼哈顿经营一家基金
公司旁边就有松久寿司店
查理和杰米试图去
起诉信用评级机构
所有的律所都嘲笑他们太天真
杰米还在经营棕地基金
但是查理离开了纽约
在北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特安家立业
本现在和妻子有一个大果园自给自足
他们保存了很多种子
麦克·贝利 几次去联系政府
看看是否有人愿意采访他
去了解他对金融系统的看法
为什么只有他提前预测到了金融危机
但从没有人回过他电话
可是他本人被审讯过4次
被联邦调查局查账
他现在唯一在做的小型投资
只关注一种商品
淡水
2015年开始 很多的大银行发售十亿规模的
“定制分级机会投资”
据彭博新闻的分析
这就是CDO改了个名字
《大空头》 译者:aceusub 译者邮箱: aceusub@126.com 时间轴校准/微博@Emtee
bgm:《When The Levee Breaks》by Led Zeppelin
根据麦克·刘易斯同名书籍改编