1
00:00:12,784 --> 00:00:15,132
丰年价格回落

2
00:00:16,002 --> 00:00:18,832
歉岁则价格提升

3
00:00:22,364 --> 00:00:26,530
这个多年以来谷物价格的规律

4
00:00:26,798 --> 00:00:29,637
如今发生了异常变化

5
00:00:38,091 --> 00:00:41,622
一位男子端坐电脑前

6
00:00:43,613 --> 00:00:45,535
正在交易的金额

7
00:00:45,818 --> 00:00:47,789
一次700万美元

8
00:00:48,033 --> 00:00:49,895
约合7亿円

9
00:00:51,618 --> 00:00:55,097
有时一天能赚3亿円

10
00:00:57,419 --> 00:01:01,352
被称为商品基金的他们
所交易的对象

11
00:01:02,387 --> 00:01:04,859
那就是玉米

12
00:01:06,153 --> 00:01:08,797
买进玉米

13
00:01:09,561 --> 00:01:13,723
只要能赚钱买什么都行

14
00:01:13,933 --> 00:01:17,783
谷物也只是谋利手段之一而已

15
00:01:21,149 --> 00:01:26,018
谷物市场的新生势力-商品基金

16
00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:32,404
使迄今为止由供需决定的
谷物行情为之一变

17
00:01:35,379 --> 00:01:38,775
筹集全世界的资金孤注一掷

18
00:01:39,082 --> 00:01:40,715
哄抬价格

19
00:01:44,249 --> 00:01:46,299
玉米和大豆的价格

20
00:01:46,509 --> 00:01:49,803
在一年多中暴涨了两倍

21
00:01:53,401 --> 00:01:54,958
维持了150年的

22
00:01:55,241 --> 00:01:58,268
谷物市场的常识被颠覆了

23
00:02:01,587 --> 00:02:04,765
谷物变得和股票一样了

24
00:02:05,012 --> 00:02:08,289
真是天翻地覆

25
00:02:11,669 --> 00:02:14,004
谷物市场的巨大变化

26
00:02:14,993 --> 00:02:20,223
契机是由于谷物成了能源原料

27
00:02:22,825 --> 00:02:24,682
美国的粮仓地带

28
00:02:24,851 --> 00:02:27,777
正在不断新建巨型工厂

29
00:02:28,851 --> 00:02:31,067
生物乙醇的工厂

30
00:02:35,182 --> 00:02:39,464
玉米发酵、蒸馏后制成的生物乙醇

31
00:02:41,823 --> 00:02:46,370
可替代石油
生产汽车燃料的新兴商品

32
00:02:47,093 --> 00:02:49,087
见稳保有利可图

33
00:02:49,323 --> 00:02:52,034
基金资金于是大举涌入

34
00:03:05,754 --> 00:03:08,318
生物乙醇工厂收购的玉米

35
00:03:08,578 --> 00:03:11,709
已超过了向日本的出口量

36
00:03:19,564 --> 00:03:24,149
真是的 涨了三分了

37
00:03:24,356 --> 00:03:27,726
基金资金的冲击波及日本

38
00:03:31,889 --> 00:03:35,082
以维持谷物稳定进口为使命的

39
00:03:35,321 --> 00:03:38,091
日本粮食交易的老手们

40
00:03:38,273 --> 00:03:40,131
显得无可奈何

41
00:03:42,822 --> 00:03:44,642
进口的没有了

42
00:03:44,860 --> 00:03:46,920
对美国来说是出口

43
00:03:47,152 --> 00:03:50,747
出口的玉米没有了

44
00:03:51,006 --> 00:03:54,140
这种担心越来越大

45
00:03:57,925 --> 00:04:01,778
开始受基金资金操纵的粮食

46
00:04:02,617 --> 00:04:04,836
让我们追踪现场

47
00:04:12,925 --> 00:04:21,399
{\fs35\pos(192,242)}
基金资金操纵粮食

48
00:04:12,925 --> 00:04:21,399
{\fn黑体\fs20\pos(192,273)}
-谷物价格暴涨的背后-

49
00:04:27,840 --> 00:04:30,044
能容下整个日本列岛的

50
00:04:30,558 --> 00:04:33,398
美国中西部粮仓地带

51
00:04:34,883 --> 00:04:36,828
这片广袤的农田

52
00:04:37,003 --> 00:04:40,365
日本用于食品和家畜饲料的玉米

53
00:04:40,643 --> 00:04:42,360
大都依赖于此

54
00:04:50,886 --> 00:04:52,107
九月

55
00:04:56,271 --> 00:04:58,597
玉米进口量两百万吨

56
00:04:58,906 --> 00:05:02,052
占全国一成以上的综合商社

57
00:05:02,241 --> 00:05:05,243
丰田通商的古米润先生

58
00:05:10,047 --> 00:05:13,084
过去十年中几乎不变的价格

59
00:05:13,281 --> 00:05:15,484
从去年开始暴涨

60
00:05:16,846 --> 00:05:19,204
所需玉米能否确保

61
00:05:19,470 --> 00:05:21,497
前来产地视察

62
00:05:26,900 --> 00:05:31,066
光看这个也能知道
今年是个大丰年

63
00:05:32,213 --> 00:05:37,678
从根部到顶部结实饱满

64
00:05:44,095 --> 00:05:49,753
可是在出口设施
却发生了异常情况

65
00:05:51,265 --> 00:05:55,143
丰田通商的玉米收集站

66
00:05:57,771 --> 00:06:01,610
向日本等国发货的次数大幅减少

67
00:06:02,965 --> 00:06:08,385
最后一次发货出口是什么时候

68
00:06:09,105 --> 00:06:12,350
大概是在八月份吧

69
00:06:12,582 --> 00:06:17,288
上个月到现在没发过货吗

70
00:06:17,795 --> 00:06:20,156
筹集不到玉米了

71
00:06:26,053 --> 00:06:28,442
这天来出售玉米的

72
00:06:28,581 --> 00:06:31,144
只有一辆小卡车

73
00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:43,070
以前多的时候
一天要来两百辆大货车

74
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,680
到这个地步也只能无语了

75
00:07:07,622 --> 00:07:13,787
本来这个时期
应该要很忙才对啊

76
00:07:14,259 --> 00:07:17,104
这是我们不愿见到的情景

77
00:07:23,331 --> 00:07:27,607
从丰田通商设施前驶过的货车

78
00:07:30,091 --> 00:07:32,688
在开往其他地方

79
00:07:37,690 --> 00:07:41,953
这辆车以前一直来我们这里卖的

80
00:07:42,149 --> 00:07:44,557
已经有两个月没来了

81
00:07:45,918 --> 00:07:48,441
那一家乙醇工厂

82
00:07:48,810 --> 00:07:52,165
玉米全运去那儿了

83
00:07:53,003 --> 00:07:56,538
那里生产汽车用乙醇

84
00:07:57,477 --> 00:08:00,183
他们的收购价要高出很多

85
00:08:00,371 --> 00:08:02,676
根本没法和他们比

86
00:08:06,026 --> 00:08:08,003
在十分钟车程的地方

87
00:08:08,174 --> 00:08:10,676
玉米堆积如山

88
00:08:11,990 --> 00:08:14,955
全是用于生物乙醇的

89
00:08:17,738 --> 00:08:21,916
现在美国生产的玉米的四分之一

90
00:08:22,470 --> 00:08:25,359
被乙醇工厂收购

91
00:08:32,448 --> 00:08:36,076
乙醇工厂正如雨后春笋

92
00:08:37,624 --> 00:08:41,889
全美已有136家

93
00:08:52,799 --> 00:08:57,306
生物乙醇业为何会急速扩大

94
00:09:12,874 --> 00:09:17,841
又有一家乙醇工厂
在粮仓地带落成

95
00:09:21,871 --> 00:09:26,175
会场上展示的
是新开发的乙醇车

96
00:09:31,575 --> 00:09:36,306
竞选下届总统的
奥巴马参议员也赶来道贺

97
00:09:43,842 --> 00:09:46,849
美国第三大乙醇公司繁盛

98
00:09:47,138 --> 00:09:49,401
建成的第三座工厂

99
00:09:49,917 --> 00:09:52,922
建设费用140亿円以上

100
00:09:57,854 --> 00:10:01,343
高耸的玉米发酵罐

101
00:10:08,951 --> 00:10:14,348
每周从周围的农家
收购约两万吨的玉米

102
00:10:25,630 --> 00:10:28,232
工厂二十四小时运行

103
00:10:33,177 --> 00:10:34,688
把玉米粉碎

104
00:10:35,048 --> 00:10:37,073
掺入水使其发酵

105
00:10:37,264 --> 00:10:38,583
进行蒸馏

106
00:10:42,359 --> 00:10:44,741
一周便可制成乙醇

107
00:10:53,786 --> 00:10:56,497
装满这个巨大筒仓的玉米

108
00:10:56,913 --> 00:10:59,123
五天便被使用一空

109
00:11:06,789 --> 00:11:10,506
制成的乙醇用一百节车皮的货车

110
00:11:10,691 --> 00:11:13,423
运往全美各地的炼油厂

111
00:11:26,872 --> 00:11:29,461
支撑着工厂建设的

112
00:11:29,860 --> 00:11:31,948
是基金资金

113
00:11:34,921 --> 00:11:36,945
让我们去兜风

114
00:11:41,403 --> 00:11:43,196
史蒂夫·卡比

115
00:11:44,443 --> 00:11:46,741
向繁盛乙醇公司

116
00:11:46,949 --> 00:11:49,640
投资了约50亿円

117
00:11:54,484 --> 00:11:57,324
卡比经营的风险基金

118
00:11:57,528 --> 00:11:59,509
布鲁斯特姆投资公司

119
00:12:00,620 --> 00:12:03,829
之前一直投资于与谷物无关的

120
00:12:04,107 --> 00:12:06,909
IT和医疗等领域的新兴企业

121
00:12:10,896 --> 00:12:17,856
这是繁盛公司上市时的照片

122
00:12:19,624 --> 00:12:24,042
但在发现乙醇蕴藏暴利商机后

123
00:12:24,336 --> 00:12:27,989
开始了空前的巨额投资

124
00:12:33,957 --> 00:12:38,936
我们基金至少
要打出安打或二垒打

125
00:12:39,095 --> 00:12:41,765
偶尔也想来个全垒打

126
00:12:41,963 --> 00:12:44,469
因此对繁盛的投资

127
00:12:44,761 --> 00:12:48,993
就如同是连打了三个全垒打

128
00:12:49,195 --> 00:12:52,895
总而言之是绝了

129
00:12:58,795 --> 00:13:01,073
卡比每做一次投资

130
00:13:01,358 --> 00:13:03,509
就有新工厂开建

131
00:13:05,492 --> 00:13:08,988
2003年投资370万美元

132
00:13:09,243 --> 00:13:11,372
建成了第一家工厂

133
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,353
建第二家工厂的时候

134
00:13:15,589 --> 00:13:18,725
他筹集了十倍的资金

135
00:13:20,756 --> 00:13:22,456
仅仅四年中

136
00:13:22,681 --> 00:13:25,014
建成了三座工厂

137
00:13:30,519 --> 00:13:36,467
繁盛以高价收购所需的大量玉米

138
00:13:37,764 --> 00:13:43,555
背后还有州政府
对乙醇产业的大力支持

139
00:13:47,171 --> 00:13:50,023
为培育使农民致富的新产业

140
00:13:50,242 --> 00:13:52,970
政府对工厂建设和乙醇生产

141
00:13:53,194 --> 00:13:56,616
接连实施优惠政策

142
00:14:06,289 --> 00:14:09,837
玉米能开动汽车

143
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,227
还能让农户增收

144
00:14:14,499 --> 00:14:18,103
对我们基金和农民都是好事情

145
00:14:18,425 --> 00:14:20,688
这就是双赢嘛

146
00:14:26,836 --> 00:14:30,357
美国政府在2005年提出的方针

147
00:14:30,646 --> 00:14:33,357
对大势所趋起了决定性作用

148
00:14:41,300 --> 00:14:44,117
布什总统宣布要在六年中

149
00:14:44,402 --> 00:14:48,275
使全国乙醇使用量增加近两倍

150
00:14:49,460 --> 00:14:53,029
以摆脱对中东的石油依存

151
00:14:58,771 --> 00:15:03,479
为了摆脱对外国能源的依存

152
00:15:03,676 --> 00:15:08,518
必须提高可再生能源的使用

153
00:15:17,672 --> 00:15:21,660
政府为促进含乙醇汽油的消费

154
00:15:21,943 --> 00:15:23,866
制定了优惠政策

155
00:15:24,548 --> 00:15:27,053
使其能低价销售

156
00:15:34,187 --> 00:15:38,117
有政府撑腰的市场扩张

157
00:15:39,435 --> 00:15:41,581
眼见获益必定无疑

158
00:15:41,744 --> 00:15:43,966
基金资金趋之若骛

159
00:15:53,922 --> 00:15:56,840
更有其他基金资金

160
00:15:57,153 --> 00:16:00,450
开始直接操控谷物行情

161
00:16:07,892 --> 00:16:09,853
世界最大的谷物市场

162
00:16:10,104 --> 00:16:12,590
芝加哥商品交易所

163
00:16:18,347 --> 00:16:19,653
迄今为止

164
00:16:19,796 --> 00:16:21,617
决定谷物价格的是

165
00:16:21,991 --> 00:16:26,151
当年的气候和收获量等供求平衡

166
00:16:28,898 --> 00:16:30,541
可是现在

167
00:16:31,183 --> 00:16:35,955
决定市场的新兴势力脱颖而出

168
00:16:36,835 --> 00:16:39,086
那就是商品基金

169
00:16:43,027 --> 00:16:46,153
商品基金从全世界筹集资金

170
00:16:46,327 --> 00:16:49,348
和股票一样买卖谷物

171
00:16:49,583 --> 00:16:51,285
从中获利

172
00:16:55,448 --> 00:16:58,164
投资于商品的基金运营资金

173
00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,140
2000年后剧增五倍

174
00:17:03,451 --> 00:17:06,702
长年从事谷物交易的人士

175
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,181
对此深感困惑

176
00:17:12,980 --> 00:17:17,430
现在谷物被当作股票一样交易

177
00:17:17,776 --> 00:17:19,493
过去几十年

178
00:17:19,681 --> 00:17:21,962
一直是由我们
交易所里的人买进卖出

179
00:17:22,122 --> 00:17:23,413
决定价格的

180
00:17:23,740 --> 00:17:26,171
现在完全不一样了

181
00:17:26,354 --> 00:17:28,017
使用电脑的基金

182
00:17:28,193 --> 00:17:30,884
开始支配这个市场

183
00:17:31,174 --> 00:17:33,251
天翻地覆的变化

184
00:17:39,485 --> 00:17:43,410
商品基金是如何改变谷物市场的

185
00:17:54,764 --> 00:17:58,285
在美国南部
佛罗里达经营商品基金的

186
00:17:58,457 --> 00:18:00,258
斯坦利·哈尔

187
00:18:04,567 --> 00:18:07,387
买进玉米

188
00:18:09,664 --> 00:18:15,053
我要买进玉米
你给我下单

189
00:18:18,135 --> 00:18:25,487
我要以3.58美元买进玉米

190
00:18:27,262 --> 00:18:30,118
这一次交易流动的金额

191
00:18:30,284 --> 00:18:31,857
就达7亿円

192
00:18:34,586 --> 00:18:36,536
准确把握交易趋势

193
00:18:36,731 --> 00:18:40,247
曾在一天获利3亿円

194
00:18:57,945 --> 00:19:00,926
谷物已不仅仅是粮食

195
00:19:01,105 --> 00:19:03,016
还成为了能源

196
00:19:03,262 --> 00:19:05,825
价格开始大幅震荡

197
00:19:06,029 --> 00:19:07,922
机会由此产生

198
00:19:08,472 --> 00:19:10,865
只要能准确解读市场

199
00:19:11,067 --> 00:19:13,486
就能获利无穷

200
00:19:18,952 --> 00:19:24,763
哈尔从去年到今年的
玉米交易记录

201
00:19:30,399 --> 00:19:34,519
有一天买进了123万蒲式耳

202
00:19:34,739 --> 00:19:37,009
约合3万吨

203
00:19:42,201 --> 00:19:45,087
四个月买入十四次

204
00:19:45,282 --> 00:19:47,399
共计21万吨

205
00:19:49,902 --> 00:19:53,596
其他商品基金也大举买入

206
00:19:54,841 --> 00:19:59,564
买单余额在今年一月
创下历史记录

207
00:20:00,314 --> 00:20:03,798
价格一路上升

208
00:20:06,012 --> 00:20:10,269
哈尔在价格到顶后不久一气抛售

209
00:20:10,460 --> 00:20:14,052
获利2亿8千万円

210
00:20:17,551 --> 00:20:19,599
英国的理财公司

211
00:20:19,902 --> 00:20:21,855
巴西的资本家

212
00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:25,142
产油国委内瑞拉的投资公司

213
00:20:26,549 --> 00:20:29,806
哈尔接到世界各国的电话

214
00:20:30,107 --> 00:20:32,326
纷纷要求投资

215
00:20:35,491 --> 00:20:38,184
我是专打本垒打的

216
00:20:38,531 --> 00:20:41,820
对赚小钱不感兴趣

217
00:20:42,882 --> 00:20:45,207
一旦定下目标

218
00:20:45,509 --> 00:20:47,653
就要走很长的路

219
00:20:48,107 --> 00:20:51,286
朝着目标不会轻易放弃

220
00:20:52,228 --> 00:20:56,474
所以这几年来战无不胜

221
00:21:00,018 --> 00:21:01,735
除了谷物以外

222
00:21:02,018 --> 00:21:04,753
哈尔还从事石油和贵金属等

223
00:21:05,095 --> 00:21:08,017
六十多种商品的交易

224
00:21:10,067 --> 00:21:13,160
从黄金白银到玉米大豆

225
00:21:13,478 --> 00:21:18,480
一天二十四小时
不停地追踪价格变动

226
00:21:22,368 --> 00:21:27,412
今天玉米虽然跌了2美分

227
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:31,546
但是黄金涨了2.5美元

228
00:21:33,395 --> 00:21:35,355
解读行情动向

229
00:21:35,521 --> 00:21:38,861
把资金瞬时转移到
更有利的商品上

230
00:21:39,029 --> 00:21:40,797
推动价格波动

231
00:21:41,887 --> 00:21:46,318
由需求决定的谷物价格

232
00:21:46,608 --> 00:21:49,646
由于商品基金的出现

233
00:21:49,828 --> 00:21:52,563
正处于风雨飘摇之中

234
00:21:57,342 --> 00:21:58,914
不管什么商品

235
00:21:59,134 --> 00:22:00,956
只要能获利就好

236
00:22:01,650 --> 00:22:05,249
但是我们基金也承担着

237
00:22:05,573 --> 00:22:08,826
活跃市场的重大职责

238
00:22:09,133 --> 00:22:13,924
当然要是没有我们
也没有什么问题

239
00:22:21,356 --> 00:22:24,128
基金资金引发的变化

240
00:22:24,289 --> 00:22:27,827
也直接影响到美国农业本身

241
00:22:33,509 --> 00:22:35,771
丰田通商的古米先生

242
00:22:35,981 --> 00:22:38,889
这天和饲料厂商负责人一起

243
00:22:39,127 --> 00:22:42,606
前往世界最大的种子公司

244
00:22:48,293 --> 00:22:51,577
美国的农业正在向何处去

245
00:22:51,922 --> 00:22:54,905
去收集最新的情报

246
00:23:02,180 --> 00:23:04,248
开发的新种子

247
00:23:04,670 --> 00:23:08,841
对今后农民
播种什么有重大影响

248
00:23:17,635 --> 00:23:21,001
颜色有点不同

249
00:23:21,396 --> 00:23:31,700
使用这个品种
能多制造2-4％的乙醇

250
00:23:38,561 --> 00:23:43,383
面向乙醇工厂开发的新种子

251
00:23:54,393 --> 00:23:56,851
增加淀粉的含量

252
00:23:57,077 --> 00:24:01,866
能生产更多乙醇的品种

253
00:24:03,771 --> 00:24:11,965
这类品种现在很受欢迎吗

254
00:24:12,151 --> 00:24:17,230
这种玉米人气非常高

255
00:24:17,384 --> 00:24:19,990
特别受农户欢迎

256
00:24:23,777 --> 00:24:27,494
和古米先生同行的
饲料公司负责人

257
00:24:27,736 --> 00:24:29,383
突然感到很担心

258
00:24:29,708 --> 00:24:34,515
今后玉米可能全变为乙醇用品种

259
00:24:39,069 --> 00:24:43,239
刚才展示厅里的那种玉米

260
00:24:43,478 --> 00:24:47,850
老实说我们是不希望

261
00:24:48,182 --> 00:24:52,457
开发出这种玉米的

262
00:24:53,538 --> 00:24:57,248
但是现实上困难重重

263
00:24:57,712 --> 00:25:01,592
美国国内乙醇这样吃香

264
00:25:01,938 --> 00:25:05,215
过去说到美国粮食

265
00:25:05,457 --> 00:25:08,597
就等于盆满钵满

266
00:25:08,822 --> 00:25:15,508
把日本作为泄洪口的
时代已经结束了

267
00:25:22,296 --> 00:25:27,472
农户也被卷入
乙醇商业带来的变化中

268
00:25:36,605 --> 00:25:39,207
在乙醇工厂附近务农的

269
00:25:39,407 --> 00:25:41,829
艾尔文·约翰逊先生

270
00:25:46,602 --> 00:25:49,051
两百公顷的玉米田

271
00:25:49,288 --> 00:25:51,890
今年的第一次收获

272
00:26:01,366 --> 00:26:02,984
想想看

273
00:26:03,191 --> 00:26:05,455
收割机每收割一次

274
00:26:05,734 --> 00:26:09,278
有300蒲式耳（7.6吨）

275
00:26:09,505 --> 00:26:13,240
现在玉米价格4美元左右

276
00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:17,624
满满一车能赚1200美元呢

277
00:26:28,299 --> 00:26:32,055
每天约翰逊先生频频在电脑里

278
00:26:32,423 --> 00:26:37,364
查看乙醇工厂公布的收购价格

279
00:26:43,352 --> 00:26:46,731
当地业者开价是3.11美元

280
00:26:47,447 --> 00:26:51,403
这家乙醇厂开价3.20美元

281
00:26:51,849 --> 00:26:54,239
要高出9美分

282
00:26:57,327 --> 00:26:59,463
约翰逊先生家的附近

283
00:26:59,664 --> 00:27:02,132
建有四家乙醇工厂

284
00:27:02,949 --> 00:27:07,260
工厂为能多收购农户的玉米

285
00:27:07,583 --> 00:27:10,731
互相竞争收购价格

286
00:27:14,089 --> 00:27:16,493
这天约翰逊先生决定

287
00:27:16,866 --> 00:27:20,471
去开价最高的工厂出售

288
00:27:25,471 --> 00:27:27,775
出售玉米的收入

289
00:27:28,183 --> 00:27:31,602
是一年前的近两倍

290
00:27:42,967 --> 00:27:45,326
今年约翰逊先生

291
00:27:45,789 --> 00:27:49,601
改变了多年来的作物种类

292
00:27:50,567 --> 00:27:52,517
减少大豆种植

293
00:27:52,700 --> 00:27:55,866
改种价格高涨的玉米

294
00:28:04,345 --> 00:28:07,856
倘若在同一块田里持续种植玉米

295
00:28:08,050 --> 00:28:10,582
很容易产生病害和虫害

296
00:28:11,384 --> 00:28:14,249
为此从前每年都要

297
00:28:14,509 --> 00:28:17,692
把玉米和大豆交互播种

298
00:28:20,584 --> 00:28:25,410
可是今年为增加
涨价的玉米的种植量

299
00:28:25,634 --> 00:28:30,342
三分之一的大豆田改种了玉米

300
00:28:36,522 --> 00:28:40,297
长年以来约翰逊先生种植的大豆

301
00:28:40,576 --> 00:28:43,010
出口到日本制成豆腐

302
00:28:43,532 --> 00:28:45,530
这种大豆味道很好

303
00:28:45,696 --> 00:28:47,222
但收获量较少

304
00:28:47,382 --> 00:28:49,177
栽培费时费工

305
00:28:49,415 --> 00:28:51,952
非基因改造的大豆

306
00:28:57,463 --> 00:29:02,745
我喜欢种植
非基因改造的豆腐用大豆

307
00:29:03,099 --> 00:29:07,258
特别是供日本人食用的大豆

308
00:29:08,810 --> 00:29:13,914
不过我认为商业第一

309
00:29:14,375 --> 00:29:18,096
所以能获益多少

310
00:29:18,402 --> 00:29:21,638
是最重要的

311
00:29:24,635 --> 00:29:27,594
最近很多当地的农户

312
00:29:27,861 --> 00:29:31,666
建起了玉米储存用的大型筒仓

313
00:29:34,908 --> 00:29:37,787
价格低的时候不卖

314
00:29:37,969 --> 00:29:40,874
囤积起来待价而沽

315
00:29:47,155 --> 00:29:50,974
约翰逊先生今年也花了330万円

316
00:29:51,256 --> 00:29:54,132
和人合买了筒仓

317
00:29:59,487 --> 00:30:02,104
如今农户也开始有能力

318
00:30:02,489 --> 00:30:06,268
对玉米价格的决定产生影响了

319
00:30:13,618 --> 00:30:16,630
农民有能力推动价格上涨

320
00:30:16,911 --> 00:30:19,554
新的时代已经到来

321
00:30:20,096 --> 00:30:22,692
不再是买方一言九鼎

322
00:30:22,856 --> 00:30:26,555
我们对卖什么如何卖

323
00:30:26,734 --> 00:30:29,834
也能发挥影响力的时代

324
00:30:35,624 --> 00:30:37,826
九月十二日

325
00:30:39,743 --> 00:30:42,321
世界的谷物业界人士

326
00:30:42,514 --> 00:30:46,301
在凝神静候美国政府的宣布

327
00:30:54,607 --> 00:30:57,276
世界最大的玉米生产国

328
00:30:57,467 --> 00:31:01,248
美国的收获预期即将公布

329
00:31:09,583 --> 00:31:11,558
古米先生通过当地视察

330
00:31:11,793 --> 00:31:15,102
预料将会是前所未有的大丰收

331
00:31:16,056 --> 00:31:18,257
丰年因供应增多

332
00:31:18,489 --> 00:31:20,128
价格便会下跌

333
00:31:20,352 --> 00:31:22,906
乃是迄今为止的常识

334
00:31:32,306 --> 00:31:33,915
发表的结果

335
00:31:34,081 --> 00:31:37,141
是有史以来的大丰收

336
00:31:42,264 --> 00:31:44,742
在价格居高不下之中

337
00:31:44,968 --> 00:31:47,809
是难得的低价收购良机

338
00:31:52,253 --> 00:31:54,293
前一天的收盘价

339
00:31:54,514 --> 00:31:58,108
一蒲式耳3.41美元

340
00:32:02,292 --> 00:32:09,348
今天玉米应该会低开

341
00:32:09,533 --> 00:32:15,649
非常有可能降至3.30美元以下

342
00:32:19,951 --> 00:32:24,752
古米先生立刻致电
饲料公司的客户

343
00:32:32,434 --> 00:32:37,542
这家饲料公司
通过丰田通商采购玉米

344
00:32:38,479 --> 00:32:40,750
这天瞄准价格会下跌

345
00:32:40,947 --> 00:32:43,371
打算大量买入

346
00:32:46,555 --> 00:32:55,813
推荐在开盘的时候
尽量多买进一点

347
00:32:58,751 --> 00:33:01,227
买入价若能便宜十美分

348
00:33:01,518 --> 00:33:04,635
一个月就相差近两千万円

349
00:33:09,227 --> 00:33:13,001
近期所需的使用量

350
00:33:13,411 --> 00:33:18,115
希望这次能全部买得到

351
00:33:20,716 --> 00:33:22,106
同一天

352
00:33:22,286 --> 00:33:24,159
美国农民约翰逊先生

353
00:33:24,341 --> 00:33:26,637
也在等待市场开盘

354
00:33:30,622 --> 00:33:34,118
市场对大丰收如何反应呢

355
00:33:37,776 --> 00:33:41,501
他担心价格会下跌

356
00:33:48,058 --> 00:33:50,309
芝加哥市场

357
00:33:51,641 --> 00:33:55,678
交易开始时间是上午九点半

358
00:34:08,548 --> 00:34:10,943
交易开始了

359
00:34:20,757 --> 00:34:22,781
开盘后不久

360
00:34:23,009 --> 00:34:25,109
受大丰收影响

361
00:34:25,313 --> 00:34:32,263
价格从3.41美元
一时跌至3.38美元

362
00:34:42,393 --> 00:34:45,288
可是十分钟后

363
00:34:45,476 --> 00:34:49,313
迄今为止的常识
无法想象的事情发生了

364
00:34:50,386 --> 00:34:53,982
价格竟然开始调头上涨

365
00:35:04,987 --> 00:35:11,655
玉米涨了2美分

366
00:35:14,047 --> 00:35:19,201
估计价格会下跌
一段时间的丰田通商

367
00:35:23,224 --> 00:35:25,413
真是的

368
00:35:26,220 --> 00:35:28,764
上涨3美分喔

369
00:35:29,347 --> 00:35:31,676
一眨眼功夫啊

370
00:35:39,899 --> 00:35:42,610
芝加哥的情报传来了

371
00:35:48,035 --> 00:35:54,335
就是说很多基金都在现价买进

372
00:36:00,604 --> 00:36:05,103
说是有商品基金大单买进

373
00:36:05,308 --> 00:36:07,956
以即时价格买进

374
00:36:08,121 --> 00:36:12,995
而且卖单出乎意料地少

375
00:36:18,195 --> 00:36:20,768
商品基金的哈尔

376
00:36:22,549 --> 00:36:26,498
冷静地关注这天的价格波动

377
00:36:29,639 --> 00:36:33,468
公告的影响只持续了五分钟

378
00:36:36,077 --> 00:36:42,362
市场对玉米大丰收
事先就已消化了

379
00:36:43,218 --> 00:36:47,032
长期来看谷物是不够的

380
00:36:47,303 --> 00:36:50,634
庞大的资金早在伺机买进

381
00:36:50,957 --> 00:36:54,822
一旦认为机会到来
就会一拥而上

382
00:36:57,222 --> 00:37:01,035
丰年降价的行情常识

383
00:37:02,305 --> 00:37:08,087
然而商品基金的
行动法则却迥然不同

384
00:37:09,744 --> 00:37:11,500
于是形成了令古米先生等

385
00:37:11,871 --> 00:37:13,798
大多数谷物业界人士

386
00:37:14,021 --> 00:37:16,594
跌破眼镜的急速价格上涨

387
00:37:23,593 --> 00:37:27,908
玉米涨了6美分

388
00:37:29,711 --> 00:37:34,111
今天这个数字真是出乎意料

389
00:37:37,257 --> 00:37:41,757
饲料公司这一天没能如愿买进

390
00:37:41,971 --> 00:37:43,341
真是失败

391
00:37:43,559 --> 00:37:46,157
一开盘买进就好了

392
00:37:47,799 --> 00:37:50,655
估计能便宜5到10美分

393
00:37:50,820 --> 00:37:53,744
没想到基金买进了

394
00:37:54,060 --> 00:37:58,454
于是价格一气上涨

395
00:38:06,632 --> 00:38:10,131
市场的价格继续上涨

396
00:38:13,571 --> 00:38:15,907
买单纷至沓来

397
00:38:16,125 --> 00:38:20,338
仅这一天价格就被
哄抬10美分以上

398
00:38:31,283 --> 00:38:33,046
对约翰逊先生而言

399
00:38:33,257 --> 00:38:35,637
这是意料之外的佳音

400
00:38:44,238 --> 00:38:48,930
玉米大涨15美分

401
00:38:49,343 --> 00:38:54,347
和昨天的价格比起来
涨了好多啊

402
00:38:55,467 --> 00:38:58,888
托基金的福玉米价格大涨

403
00:38:59,138 --> 00:39:00,974
真是谢天谢地

404
00:39:01,140 --> 00:39:03,059
全靠基金了

405
00:39:04,327 --> 00:39:08,906
基金一运作就会有机会

406
00:39:10,019 --> 00:39:12,054
如果价格一直不变

407
00:39:12,354 --> 00:39:14,507
什么机会也没有

408
00:39:15,358 --> 00:39:17,514
价格剧烈波动的话

409
00:39:17,698 --> 00:39:20,741
就会增加高价出售的机会

410
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,789
今天没心思下田了

411
00:39:25,010 --> 00:39:27,501
还是听听收音机的市场消息

412
00:39:27,722 --> 00:39:29,890
坐着赚钱舒服

413
00:39:40,730 --> 00:39:43,303
现在美国的农户中

414
00:39:43,648 --> 00:39:46,231
改种能提高产量的

415
00:39:46,543 --> 00:39:50,320
基因改造玉米的人迅速增多

416
00:39:52,271 --> 00:39:54,244
为了能向乙醇工厂

417
00:39:54,557 --> 00:39:56,903
出售更多的玉米

418
00:40:01,153 --> 00:40:03,424
如何确保日本食品厂家

419
00:40:03,708 --> 00:40:08,296
需求量很大的非基因改造玉米

420
00:40:09,794 --> 00:40:12,375
古米先生他们绞尽脑汁

421
00:40:12,661 --> 00:40:16,228
维持与签约栽培农家的关系

422
00:40:20,859 --> 00:40:25,700
能坚持下去的农户总体上没有

423
00:40:26,068 --> 00:40:28,067
按现在这种情况

424
00:40:28,292 --> 00:40:31,383
百分之百会卖给乙醇工厂

425
00:40:31,607 --> 00:40:33,771
都是这种情况

426
00:40:34,139 --> 00:40:38,883
形势已经180度大转向了

427
00:40:39,508 --> 00:40:44,201
所以我们只能去找愿意做的人家

428
00:40:45,417 --> 00:40:51,673
现在农户的出售发言权很强大

429
00:40:58,206 --> 00:41:01,008
古米先生直接拜访农户

430
00:41:01,236 --> 00:41:05,378
说服他们继续签约栽培

431
00:41:15,915 --> 00:41:18,359
这户农家从两年前开始

432
00:41:18,678 --> 00:41:22,203
栽培丰田通商特别提供的品种

433
00:41:30,057 --> 00:41:35,770
在乙醇工厂林立的情况下

434
00:41:35,978 --> 00:41:39,450
最近的状况如何

435
00:41:40,897 --> 00:41:44,152
乙醇产业正在不断壮大

436
00:41:44,359 --> 00:41:48,888
玉米价格涨势喜人

437
00:41:49,219 --> 00:41:56,802
明年能否继续种植同一种玉米呢

438
00:41:56,975 --> 00:41:59,089
这就得看情况了

439
00:41:59,258 --> 00:42:03,222
我也是想要获利的呀

440
00:42:03,397 --> 00:42:08,432
我得好好计算一下才知道

441
00:42:08,909 --> 00:42:12,317
不是喜不喜欢的问题

442
00:42:12,499 --> 00:42:18,761
是根据形势选择最能获益的而已

443
00:42:20,097 --> 00:42:22,330
要继续签约栽种

444
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,178
就得额外支付费用

445
00:42:27,083 --> 00:42:37,150
我也明白这是由经济原理决定的

446
00:42:37,766 --> 00:42:43,228
我国因价格暴涨面临困境

447
00:42:54,121 --> 00:42:58,101
严峻局势看来难以改变

448
00:42:58,357 --> 00:43:00,657
至少今后一两年内

449
00:43:01,044 --> 00:43:05,577
乙醇政策将会持续推行

450
00:43:06,332 --> 00:43:10,458
明年或者后年迫在眉睫的将来

451
00:43:10,662 --> 00:43:12,803
如何度过困境

452
00:43:13,174 --> 00:43:16,344
是非常迫切的课题

453
00:43:44,816 --> 00:43:47,928
商品基金的斯坦利·哈尔

454
00:43:49,038 --> 00:43:51,950
开始了新的投资

455
00:43:56,457 --> 00:44:00,706
契机是美国面向
低收入者的住宅借贷问题

456
00:44:00,903 --> 00:44:03,318
即所谓次级房贷危机

457
00:44:04,518 --> 00:44:06,863
从股票市场流出的资金

458
00:44:07,071 --> 00:44:09,430
开始投入谷物市场

459
00:44:10,143 --> 00:44:13,290
哈尔率先把握了这个趋势

460
00:44:21,801 --> 00:44:24,173
哈尔这次买入的

461
00:44:24,449 --> 00:44:26,248
是大豆

462
00:44:27,556 --> 00:44:30,926
由于改种玉米使得种植面积减少

463
00:44:31,130 --> 00:44:34,209
他预计价格会上涨

464
00:44:39,211 --> 00:44:42,489
股票市场无利可图了

465
00:44:42,731 --> 00:44:48,476
投资家们开始想
投资其他的热门市场

466
00:44:50,306 --> 00:44:53,514
今后几个月的谷物市场

467
00:44:53,710 --> 00:44:55,807
有戏的不是玉米

468
00:44:56,051 --> 00:44:58,047
而是大豆

469
00:44:59,781 --> 00:45:02,738
就现在

470
00:45:02,943 --> 00:45:05,748
买进

471
00:45:06,763 --> 00:45:11,231
上周大豆创下了十九年来的高价

472
00:45:19,895 --> 00:45:22,518
现在更为巨大的资金

473
00:45:22,781 --> 00:45:25,391
正要流入谷物市场

474
00:45:26,949 --> 00:45:31,487
全美主要商品基金
汇聚一堂的会场

475
00:45:36,923 --> 00:45:40,414
到场的是美国最大的养老金基金

476
00:45:40,574 --> 00:45:43,838
加州公务员退休金基金的负责人

477
00:45:44,161 --> 00:45:46,344
为寻找有利的运营对象

478
00:45:46,525 --> 00:45:49,755
与主要基金反复互通讯息

479
00:45:54,278 --> 00:46:02,230
我们想在大豆上投资

480
00:46:04,764 --> 00:46:09,421
大豆相关商品吗

481
00:46:09,605 --> 00:46:16,588
现在有三个月的商品

482
00:46:17,514 --> 00:46:23,202
不过我们不想冒太大风险

483
00:46:25,489 --> 00:46:29,357
该基金总资产达二十一兆円

484
00:46:29,655 --> 00:46:32,549
整个大豆市场才四兆円

485
00:46:34,831 --> 00:46:37,165
巨大的退休金资金

486
00:46:37,420 --> 00:46:40,420
将进一步抬高谷物市场

487
00:46:46,927 --> 00:46:50,063
明年种什么能赚钱呢

488
00:46:51,567 --> 00:46:56,171
农民约翰逊先生
也注目于大豆价格的上涨

489
00:46:58,776 --> 00:47:02,719
市场认为今后大豆会不够

490
00:47:03,258 --> 00:47:09,062
所以提高价格要我们明年种大豆

491
00:47:10,661 --> 00:47:13,957
市场这东西真太美妙了

492
00:47:14,790 --> 00:47:16,793
农田是有限的

493
00:47:17,115 --> 00:47:19,693
明年该种什么作物

494
00:47:19,912 --> 00:47:23,688
市场农作物定下价格

495
00:47:23,923 --> 00:47:25,831
分派农田耕种

496
00:47:32,301 --> 00:47:34,699
约翰逊先生多年来种植的大豆

497
00:47:34,885 --> 00:47:37,750
出口到日本制成豆腐

498
00:47:40,260 --> 00:47:42,431
眼见大豆价格直线上升

499
00:47:42,605 --> 00:47:46,181
他开始考虑放弃出口日本的大豆

500
00:47:46,495 --> 00:47:51,260
改种收获量更高的基因改造大豆

501
00:47:58,758 --> 00:48:02,096
为日本提供长期稳定粮食供应的

502
00:48:02,262 --> 00:48:04,582
美国粮仓地带

503
00:48:05,255 --> 00:48:09,467
今天正在发生不可逆转的事态

504
00:48:17,818 --> 00:48:19,908
在全球性资金过剩背景下

505
00:48:20,082 --> 00:48:24,254
日渐掌控粮食市场的基金资金

506
00:48:25,430 --> 00:48:26,977
此时此刻

507
00:48:27,259 --> 00:48:29,852
仍在不断滚滚流入

508
00:48:51,612 --> 00:48:54,447
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